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Pelosi gives Republicans what they wanted, and Trump may not thank her

More crucially, such a vote could make it more difficult for the GOP to dodge the substance of the Ukraine scandal and the issue on which impeachment will turn: Did Trump abuse his power?

Superficially, the House speaker’s call for the vote is a reversal and vindicates GOP critics who have blasted her inquiry. But it threatens to begin eroding the central pillar of Trump’s defense so far: that the investigation is nothing but an unconstitutional sham that is depriving him of due process.

Republicans are already framing new process arguments, and even top Democrats argue that Pelosi did not give the GOP everything it wanted: Thursday’s vote will merely lay out the next steps in the inquiry and is not a formal authorization of an impeachment probe. But the distinction is likely to be lost on the public.

“If they are true to their word, they are getting what they want: We are giving them a resolution that gives an open process,” Rep. Ro Khanna, a Democrat from California, told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on Wednesday evening. “So let’s see now what excuse they have.”

“It’s been more than a month and Republicans in Washington still won’t answer the simple question: is it appropriate for a President to pressure a foreign country to undermine our elections?” Pelosi
tweeted on Monday morning.
An unwillingness by Trump and the GOP to provide an answer has already provoked a wild chain of distractions, including Trump calling his critics “human scum” and
a sit-in by conservative lawmakers last week designed to thwart testimony from a Pentagon official.
There will be more hyperbole and hijinks to come — and more testimony. The National Security Council’s top Ukraine expert plans to tell the impeachment investigators on Tuesday that he was so troubled by Trump’s July phone call with Ukraine’s President that he reported his concerns to a superior,
according to his opening statement.

But the vote will end the quasi-political war over impeachment and lead to a more comprehensive public debate at a grave national moment.

As a matter of procedure, it was unnecessary. As a matter of politics and the national interest, such a vote can offer transparency and integrity to a grave constitutional process.

The debate will consider Trump’s
pressure on Ukraine to probe 2020 Democratic presidential hopeful and potential political rival Joe Biden, and a conspiracy theory that undermines the idea that Russia interfered in the 2016 US election.

It is likely to focus on whether there is conclusive evidence that the President withheld nearly $400 million in military aid to a nation effectively at war with Russia in a quid pro quo.

And it could begin to focus lawmakers on what will be the ultimate questions before a likely Senate impeachment trial.

Did the President’s actions fall within his wide-ranging prerogative to set foreign policy or do they reach the constitutional bar for impeachment and removal from office?

A bluff called?

Many Republicans were quick to gloat about Pelosi’s reversal.

After all, as recently as October 15, the speaker
had dismissed their complaints, lecturing them that impeachment was not a game and that “we’re not here to call bluffs.”

But call their bluffs she did, and in the daily scorecard of Washington politics, her decision ranks as a point on the board for the House GOP and the misfiring White House message machine.

“The cow’s out the barn,” said GOP Sen. John Kennedy of Louisiana. “They’re only doing that because of the pressure.”

Read: Pelosi sends 'Dear Colleague' letter about voting on impeachment resolutionRead: Pelosi sends 'Dear Colleague' letter about voting on impeachment resolution

But any “win” Republicans claim from her reversal is likely to be short-lived.

The latest strategic maneuver in a process that has consistently wrong-footed the White House will weaken the “process” defense that Trump has so far used to stigmatize the impeachment drive.

Beset by days of
damaging revelations, Republicans charged Pelosi with depriving Trump of fair representation and shutting Americans out of a closed-door bid to trash the 2016 election.
Never mind that the Constitution, and then
a federal judge last week, suggested that Democrats were justified in taking depositions from key witnesses out of the public glare.

A public process, with televised hearings, published transcripts of depositions that appear to damage Trump and the mechanism familiar from past impeachments could expose the President.

The thinking in the White House so far has been that the lack of a House vote strengthens the argument that Democrats are abusing their power by lacking a legislative purpose for impeachment.

But sources now acknowledge that the benefits of such an approach will now wane, forcing Republicans to focus solely on defending Trump’s actions, CNN’s Kaitlan Collins and Pamela Brown reported.

For months, following the release of special counsel
Robert Mueller’s report into Russian election interference, links between the Trump campaign and Moscow, and the President’s alleged obstruction of justice, Pelosi
stood firm against a demand for an impeachment inquiry from liberals.
Her
swift switch when details of Trump’s dealings with Ukraine emerged
via a whistleblower report reshaped Washington politics but still threatened to come with substantial political risks.
Weekend bombshell: new whistleblower(s)Weekend bombshell: new whistleblower(s)
But as polls show the public becoming more open
to impeachment and removal amid leaks damaging to Trump from depositions, the delay in a full House vote begins to make sense.

It may have allowed the politics to catch up with the process and to ease the potential pressure on some of the vulnerable Democrats she needs to safeguard her majority in 2020.

Some of Pelosi’s caucus is craving open hearings that could bring comments critical of Trump’s conduct with Ukraine —
from the top US diplomat in Kiev, for instance — out in public in a way they believe will begin to turn the nation against the President.
The House vote could also bolster Democratic arguments that impeachment is a process strongly rooted in law and the Constitution. It may erode any remaining legal basis for witnesses to ignore congressional subpoenas to testify. Already, a judge has called lawyers for the Trump White House, the House of Representatives and impeachment witness Charles Kupperman to court on Thursday afternoon
after Kupperman filed a lawsuit last week asking the federal court to decide whether he would need to testify.

And the vote will build upon a federal judge’s ruling last week — that the Democratic impeachment probe was already legal — and accusation that the Department of Justice and White House are stonewalling.

New GOP process complaints

After weeks of complaining about process, Republicans reacted to Pelosi’s change of course by complaining — about process.

One of Trump’s closest House allies, Mark Meadows, a Republican from North Carolina who has been frequently spotted at the White House in recent days, said the speaker’s move fell short of historical precedent.

“Unless you have a vote of inquiry on the House floor, a rule vote is certainly not the same thing,” Meadows said.

“You know it’s not the same thing unless it’s an impeachment inquiry vote.”

House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy of California argued that the change of course was an admission that impeachment had been “botched from the start.”

The intricacies of parliamentary procedure may pale, however, against television pictures of House members showing where they stand on the issue of impeachment. In effect, America will on Thursday see Democrats voting to open an impeachment probe.

Other
Republicans complained that it was too late for Pelosi to change course. GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina said that behind-closed-doors depositions had already corrupted the process beyond mending.

“A vote now is a bit like un-ringing a bell as House Democrats have selectively leaked information in order to damage President Trump for weeks,” Graham said in a statement.

Graham, critic of House Dem process, praised depositions in 1998 impeachment proceedingsGraham, critic of House Dem process, praised depositions in 1998 impeachment proceedings
But he also claimed credit for forcing Pelosi’s hand with his own
resolution co-sponsored by 50 senators — meant to show that a two-thirds majority needed to convict Trump in a Senate impeachment trial does not exist.

Not for the first time, however, some Republicans did not quite seem up with the program, expressing hopes — probably likely to be in vain — that the drama could become less frenetic.

“It would be great if the House would … open this process up,” Sen. John Thune of South Dakota told CNN. “I think it would be an entirely different conversation we’d be having.”

Overall, the vote in the House on Thursday appears to be derogatory to the interests of the White House.

But there are some upsides. At least it will allow the President a mechanism to be represented by his attorneys as witnesses’ testimony takes place.

It may offer the White House counsel’s office visibility into proceedings about which it was previously dependent on Republican committee members to provide.

The vote may force Democratic members who won last year in the midterm elections in districts the President carried in 2016 to take a tough vote sooner than they had anticipated.

When the hearings go public, pro-Trump Republicans will have the chance to create mischief in the House Judiciary Committee, which has historically struggled to keep them in order.

A House vote will allow strong conservative backers of the President a chance to show their constituents their support in his hour of need. And it will unite the GOP behind him.

Whether all of that is worth the potentially greater price of Trump’s conduct being exposed before millions of watching Americans is the crucial question of the coming months.

CNN’s Manu Raju, Kaitlan Collins, Pamela Brown, Sunlen Serfaty, Katelyn Polantz, Haley Byrd and Ted Barrett contributed to this report.

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President Trump and First Lady Melania host Halloween at the White House – CNN

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Photos highlight stark differences in Trump and Obama approaches

How each leader handled the defining moment says as much about their mindset as it does their foreign policy. Before, during and after the raids that took down two highly sought terrorists, Obama and Trump adopted divergent approaches and were met with different reactions from the American public.

Both recognized, however, the weight the moments carried for their legacy. And both wanted to see it happen.

“As though you were watching a movie,” Trump recalled Sunday after announcing the death of the ISIS leader in graphically detailed terms.

“We were essentially watching what was happening in real time,” Obama recounted to CNN in 2016, five years after Navy SEALs took out the 9/11 mastermind.

Obama recalls 'best chance' to get bin LadenObama recalls 'best chance' to get bin Laden

It’s easy to understand the impulse. Coming in the third year of their presidencies, the raids carried the possibility of vindication and the risk of devastating failure. Looming was the legacy of Jimmy Carter, whose mishandling of a high-stakes foreign policy matter — the Iran hostage crisis — may have cost him a second term.

Obama exercised caution afterward and avoided disclosing details of the raid; Trump was eager to tease the news and laid out much of its particulars himself. And while Obama and his aides were careful to avoid inflaming bin Laden’s followers,
Trump made a point of coloring Baghdadi’s last moments with an emasculating description of “whimpering and crying and screaming all the way.”

The photos

Photographs of the two moments capture leaders on edge. Trump, stone-faced and formal in a suit and necktie, sits at the head of a long Situation Room table surrounded by similarly grave advisers, some in military uniform, as the raid played out on large screens. The literal and symbolic central figure, Trump projects the sense of authority he has often craved as commander-in-chief.

The rigid posture and imposing presidential seal stand in contrast to the photo of Obama, in a polo shirt and windbreaker, leaning forward as his team huddled around laptops as word came from Abbottabad that “Geronimo” — the code name given bin Laden — had been killed. Obama, slightly off-center with his chair pushed into a corner, is not the eye’s natural point of focus.

The photos are from different rooms: Trump’s was taken in the John F. Kennedy Conference Room, the iconic command post famously reproduced in movies and on television shows where presidents are briefed on highly classified missions.

Obama was briefed in the lead-up to the bin Laden raid from the same head-of-table position where Trump is shown watching the Baghdadi mission. He sat there as Admiral William McRaven, the Joint Special Operations commander, narrated the mission from an outpost in Afghanistan.

But later, as word came there was a better view to be had down the hallway, he and his team decamped to the smaller conference room where a video feed was playing on the general’s laptop. It is there the tableau — crowded with others, including a hand-to-mouth Hillary Clinton — was snapped.

If both presidents wanted to view the operations they personally ordered that took down their era’s most wanted terrorists, there was little else in common in how they handled the high-wire decision and subsequent exaltation of the missions’ successes.

When he took office, Obama made clear to his first CIA Director Leon Panetta that finding bin Laden was a priority. Nine months before the raid, Obama was first briefed on the possibility the US had located the terrorist at a compound in Pakistan. But without certainty, Obama was left with a choice.

“I had been inclined to take the shot fairly early on in the discussions. But you hold back the decision until you have to make it. And in the end, what I very much appreciated, was the degree to which we had an honest debate,” Obama told CNN in 2016. “It was, in that way, emblematic of presidential decision-making, you’re always working with probabilities.”

Obama spent at least some of the lead-up to the bin Laden mission fine-tuning jokes for that year’s White House Correspondent’s Dinner — including jabs directed at Trump, whose relentless and racist pursuit of Obama’s birth certificate had that week pushed Obama to release the document. He authorized the mission the same week.

As a tuxedoed Obama was ribbing an unenthused Trump for his reality-show decision-making — “You fired Gary Busey!” — his team was making final preparations for the raid that would launch in a matter of hours.

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Trump, meanwhile, began discussions about possible operations to take out Baghdadi over the past several weeks as surveillance showed the ISIS leader on a compound near Idlib, Syria. He was presented options for a raid on the compound last week, and made the decision to go forward.

On the day of the raid, he woke up at Camp David after hosting an anniversary party for his daughter and son-in-law, played golf at his course in Virginia with Sen. Lindsey Graham and the commissioner of Major League Baseball, and returned to the White House around 4:30 p.m. ET. The group assembled in the Situation Room 30 minutes later.

Unlike Obama — who returned to the White House residence to play cards as the Navy SEAL team flew from Afghanistan to Pakistan, only returning when they were on the ground — Trump remained in the Situation Room for the duration of the mission.

Asked Sunday to describe the difficult decisions he had to make along the way, Trump said: “Well, just death.”

“I’m sending a large number of brilliant fighters — these are the greatest fighters in the world,” he said.

Breaking the news

On Saturday evening — once the US commandos had safely returned from the mission to an as-yet-unidentified base — Trump offered a cryptic tweet that “Something very big has just happened!” Shortly afterward, the White House said he’d have a “major announcement” the next morning.

“That was to notify you guys that you have something big this morning, so you wouldn’t be out playing golf or tennis or otherwise being indisposed,” Trump said later.

Among his national security advisers, there was a debate over whether it was too soon to claim victory given a lack of ironclad evidence that it was Baghdadi who’d died in the mission. Trump, however, was itching to announce the news. And media reports soon emerged on the mission in Syria and its target.

Ultimately, Trump was convinced by advisers that announcing Baghdadi’s death at 9 a.m. on Sunday — at the top of the weekly political broadcasts — would generate more attention. It also gave US officials more time to verify the target.

Obama’s aides also debated whether to announce the bin Laden raid the evening it occurred or the next morning. Almost all advocated for waiting — including Obama, who wanted additional verification it was bin Laden who’d been killed.

After after McRaven told him one of the SEALs on the mission, who was the same size as bin Laden, lay next to the body to confirm its height, Obama wanted more proof: he told him to get a tape measure.

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Ultimately, news reports began emerging of a US helicopter crash in Pakistan, whose government urged the White House to announce the news. With a few hours notice, Obama delivered a nine-minute speech announcing the “targeted operation” in Pakistan but offering few details.

“Today’s achievement is a testament to the greatness of our country and the determination of the American people,” he said from the White House Cross Hall, with the long red carpet stretching behind him. Outside the White House, cheering crowds had gathered.

Trump’s prepared remarks were of a similar length but wildly divergent in tone. Describing Baghdadi as a “sick and depraved man” who died “running and crying,” Trump ended his prepared section bluntly.

“He died like a dog. He died like a coward. The world is now a much safer place. God bless America. Thank you,” he said before taking questions for more than 40 minutes in the White House Diplomatic Reception Room. There were no cheering crowds outside the White House; when Trump attended Game 5 of the World Series that evening, he was booed.

Among the phone calls Obama placed following the successful bin Laden raid was to his own predecessor, George W. Bush, who was eating soufflés with his wife in Dallas when word came that Obama was trying to reach him.

“Good call,” Bush told his successor after hearing details of the mission that took out the terrorist he’d spend the majority of his presidency chasing.

Trump, according to aides, hasn’t made a similar call. Hogan Gidley, a White House spokesman, said he “wasn’t aware” of any communication about the Baghdadi mission between Trump and Obama. A spokesperson for Obama did not comment.

Trump offered little conciliation during remarks in Obama’s hometown on Monday.

“He should have been killed years ago,” he said of Baghdadi during a speech to police chiefs in Chicago. “Another president should have gotten him.”

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Mother of slain journalist hopeful Baghdadis death will end ISIS, but warns US to stay vigilant

“I’m hopeful that his demise will be a huge blow to the regrouping of ISIS. However, we need to continue to be very vigilant because they certainly want to regroup and bring back their reign of terror, but I’m very, very grateful,” Diane Foley told CNN’s Alisyn Camerota on “New Day.”

The Baghdadi raid was named after ISIS victim Kayla Mueller. Her parents say they're 'grateful'The Baghdadi raid was named after ISIS victim Kayla Mueller. Her parents say they're 'grateful'
On Sunday,
President Donald Trump announced that ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was dead after a US military raid in northwest Syria. Baghdadi had been at the helm of the organization that would later become ISIS since 2010, two years before James Foley was abducted by the group. For nearly two years after 2012, Foley’s captors demanded millions in ransom payments and moved the freelance journalist between prisons before he was beheaded in a video that was widely publicized online.

Diane Foley, who serves as the president and founder of the James W. Foley Legacy Foundation, said on Monday that news of Baghdadi’s death “came as such a welcome surprise” and that she was grateful to US troops involved in in the raid.

Foley also said she hopes the US military can locate American hostages held abroad and bring them back home.

“Many of these nations and terrorist groups want to use our citizens as political pawns and leverage … but I’m so hopeful that we can now find them and bring them home,” Foley said.

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Live: Brexit extension announced as Boris Johnson pushes for December election – CNN

Boris Johnson arrives at Downing Street on Monday.
Boris Johnson arrives at Downing Street on Monday. Leon Neal/Getty Images

For the past few days, leaders in Europe and Westminster have been locked in a standoff — the EU wanting to hear the UK’s next steps before granting an extension, and British politicians awaiting a verdict from Brussels before deciding on an early election.

But now one part of the equation has fallen into place — European leaders have granted a Brexit delay until the end of January.

In theory, that should make an election more likely; the UK now has time to have a campaign period and hold a vote, with several weeks to spare before the new Brexit deadline.

But as Prime Minister Boris Johnson has learned, getting an election is easier said than done. He needs two-thirds of MPs to back the plan, which requires support from the opposition Labour Party.

And Labour have been steadfast in opposing a vote until a no-deal Brexit is “off the table.” They’ve been less clear about what exactly “off the table” means — so much will depend on whether the party deems this extension satisfactory for them to back a poll.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn could still argue that the threat remains of a no-deal in January 2020, as well as at the end of the transition period in Johnson’s Brexit deal.

Johnson’s Plan B: If Labour do continue to block an election, they’ll be isolated. The SNP and the Liberal Democrats have now warmed to the idea of a contest, after previously supporting Corbyn in stonewalling the Prime Minister.

And those two opposition parties have handed Johnson an unlikely lifeline — they’ve indicated that they will support a bill overruling the Fixed Term Parliaments Act. This would call for an election but would only need a simple majority of MPs to pass.

In return, they would want the January 31 extension secured, meaning Johnson would have to put his efforts to pass his Brexit deal on hold for now.

This plan could still be an appealing path for the Prime Minister, should he lose the vote on his election request later today.

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Baghdadis death: More details emerge from US raid — live updates – CNNPolitics

An aerial view taken on October 27, 2019 shows the site that was hit by helicopter gunfire which reportedly killed nine people near the northwestern Syrian village of Barisha.
An aerial view taken on October 27, 2019 shows the site that was hit by helicopter gunfire which reportedly killed nine people near the northwestern Syrian village of Barisha. Omar Haj Kadour/AFP/Getty Images

The covert operation started around 5 p.m. on Saturday evening as eight helicopters carrying teams of elite US troops, including Delta Force operators, flew exactly one hour and ten minutes over “very, very dangerous territory” towards the compound, according to President Donald Trump on Sunday.

“We flew very, very low and very, very fast. It was a very dangerous part of the mission. Getting in and getting out, too. Equal. We wanted an identical — we took an identical route,” Trump told reporters on Sunday while providing a detailed account of the secret mission.

While in transit, the helicopters were met with local gunfire. US aircraft returned fire and eliminated the threat, Trump said speaking to the media.

After arriving at the compound, US troops breached a wall to avoid a booby trapped entrance and that’s when “all hell broke loose,” the President added.

While clearing the compound, US forces killed a “large number” of ISIS fighters during a gun battle without suffering casualties, according to Trump.

At least two ISIS fighters were captured and 11 children were taken into custody. Two of Baghdadi’s wives were killed during the operation and their suicide vests remained unexploded.

Ultimately Baghdadi, who was also wearing a suicide vest, took refuge in a “dead end” tunnel with three children.

He reached the end of the tunnel, as our dogs chased him down. He ignited his vest, killing himself and the three children. His body was mutilated by the blast. The tunnel had caved in on it in addition,” Trump said.

DNA tests that positively confirmed Baghdadi’s identity began “about 15 minutes after he was killed” and US teams on the ground “brought body parts back,” sources told CNN.

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Bill Taylor, now dodging Trump attacks, defended as a man of honor by three veterans who served with him

Retired Col. Bob Seitz, retired Maj. Gen. Robert St. Onge and retired Lt. Gen. Karl Eikenberry spoke to the character of a central figure in the
impeachment probe who testified before Congress last week. They describe their longtime friend — the top US diplomat in Ukraine — as someone with integrity who has served his country faithfully.

Eikenberry, a former ambassador to Afghanistan, said he has known Taylor since 2002 when they served in Afghanistan together, adding that the pair “worked closely together under difficult circumstances.

Taylor was at the US Embassy coordinating US and international aid efforts and Eikenberry was serving as a major general helping the Afghan government establish army and police forces, he said.

“Ambassador Taylor represents the best of our Department of State. His integrity and courage are the true marks of patriotism, loyal to an oath of office and never to be corrupted or intimidated by those seeking personal gain at our Nation’s expense,” Eikenberry said.

He described Taylor as a “most capable but unassuming government servant,” adding that “Bill always volunteered for the tough posting.”

Seitz jumped from helicopters and rucked through jungle-covered mountainous terrain in Vietnam with Taylor for 18 months. In Vietnam, Seitz said, he and Taylor saw and endured, “Fatigue, hunger, bad weather, dying, killing, and a lot of terrible wounds.”

“He was calm and composed under all of this,” Seitz said. “And the men needed a leader that was like that. He set the very best example.”

Seitz, who was classmates with Taylor at West Point, said Taylor’s personal character is one of “integrity, of compassion, and always setting best example, endurance and courage.”

Taylor’s deposition this past week was, Republican sources tell CNN, impactful and “reverberating” on Capitol Hill among Republicans. Taylor’s testimony was a game-changer in the impeachment inquiry, these sources said.

Taylor detailed conversations with Trump administration officials pushing an explicit quid pro quo — he was told “everything” Ukraine wanted from the United States including military aid depended upon the Ukrainian President publicly announcing an investigation into former Vice President Joe Biden and his son, Hunter.

5 explosive lines from Bill Taylor's statement 5 explosive lines from Bill Taylor's statement

The White House took aim at Taylor leading up to his testimony. Acting White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney told reporters: “What you’re seeing now, I believe, is a group of mostly career bureaucrats who are saying: ‘You know what? I don’t like President Trump’s politics so I’m going to participate in this witch hunt that they’re undertaking on the Hill’.”

The President called Taylor a “Never Trumper” and then immediately called all “Never Trumpers” “human scum.”

Seitz said he was in tears listening to what he called “untruths” and “personal attacks” on Taylor. Taylor extended his tour in Vietnam an extra six months, he said, and Seitz said none of those attacking Taylor “stood up for this country for 18 months the way Bill did in Vietnam.”

Taylor’s lifetime of service as a diplomat includes stints in Afghanistan and Iraq, where he faced enemy fire in Baghdad and Fallujah.

“How could anyone in the White House make such terrible remarks about a veteran that has done so much for our country?” Seitz said.

The top US diplomat to Ukraine came out of retirement for the job. Now he's the next impeachment witness.The top US diplomat to Ukraine came out of retirement for the job. Now he's the next impeachment witness.

Seitz bought a hard copy of Wednesday’s New York Times that shows a picture of Taylor on the front page walking into Congress to testify, and said it’s been on his breakfast table for days.

“He’s standing alone the way the Currahees have stood alone for our country,” Seitz said. “But all of us other Currahees are standing with him,” he said.

Seitz and Taylor were rifle company commanders of the 506th Regiment of the 101st Airborne — the same regiment from the World War II book and mini-series “Band of Brothers” — with their motto “Currahee,” meaning “We stand alone.”

“He’s a man of honor,” Seitz said, “a courageous man who has the endurance to go through all of this.” Seitz said Taylor is the embodiment of the US Military Academy Cadet Prayer, which says: “Make us to choose the harder right instead of the easier wrong, and never to be content with a half truth when the whole can be won.”

St. Onge was also a West Point classmate of Taylor’s, and was in the same battalion as him in Vietnam. They were high school classmates, and Taylor was St. Onge’s best man at his wedding.

“I don’t know anything about his politics, I just know that he has served his country faithfully as long as I have known him,” St. Onge told CNN in a recent interview.

St. Onge said he would characterize Taylor’s service as the motto of the military academy: “Duty, Honor, Country. I think that’s what motivates him.”

“The Bill that I know is extraordinarily intelligent, he is articulate, he cares about his soldiers,” St. Onge said. “He’s been a public servant all the way through. I have the utmost respect for him, and count him among my dearest friends.”

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Live updates: ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi believed killed, sources say – CNNPolitics

The news that ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is believed to have been killed comes on the back of concerns thousands of imprisoned ISIS fighters might escape thanks to Turkey’s recent invasion of northern Syria.

The fear is that as the Kurdish personnel guarding them gear up for a fight with Turkey, which launched a military offensive in northeastern Syria earlier this month, many prisoners could slip away.

Turkey’s assault has already had a “detrimental effect” on American counter-ISIS operations, which have “effectively stopped,” a senior US defense official told CNN on October 9.

The Turkish offensive, the official said, “has challenged our ability to build local security forces, conduct stabilization operations and the Syrian Democratic Forces’ (ability) to guard over 11,000 dangerous ISIS fighters.”

When asked earlier this month about the threat of ISIS prisoners escaping, US President Donald Trump claimed that some of the most dangerous ISIS prisoners had been moved, “putting them in other areas where it’s secure.”

He dismissed the overall threat, replying, “Well, they’re going to be escaping to Europe.”

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Gold star husband: On Syria withdrawal, Trump is right

Joe KentJoe Kent

The President’s detractors on both sides of the aisle are frantically arguing that we have “abandoned” the Kurds and that without a permanent US presence in Syria ISIS will return.

These emotional arguments ignore reality on several key issues. First and foremost: the nature of our relationship with the Syrian Kurds. The US partnered with the Syrian Kurds to defeat ISIS’s territorial caliphate; the US air power controlled by skilled Special Operations Forces (SOF) saved the Kurds from being slaughtered by ISIS.

The Kurds valiantly fought against ISIS not because we showed up and convinced them to, but because they had their backs to the wall and we saved them. Our interests intersected.

The US has been dealing with Kurdish aspirations in the region for decades — at no time have we supported the creation of a Kurdish state. We have always told the Kurds that we are not going to get in between them and their neighbors.
Those disputes predate US involvement in the region, we cannot rectify ethno-sectarian hate or the Sykes-Picot agreement (the 1916 pact between France and Britain, which carved up the Middle East after World War I) in 2019.

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I understand the frustrations of my brothers and sisters in arms who fought alongside the Syrian Kurds and feel that we are abandoning them. They want to stay and fight, but in Syria there is no sustainable victory to be had. The President has said since he was a candidate that we would destroy the territorial caliphate and leave. He is fulfilling his obligation to the American people who put him in office. That is who our obligation is to, not the Kurds.

The fighting spirit of our servicemembers is what makes our military strong and reflects the best of our nation, but without sober, pragmatic civilian leadership, this mentality is the essential recipe for endless war. The President, in his own bombastic way, has returned civilian leadership to the military that has been absent for a long time.

The other major issue that pundits are missing concerns the larger strategic fight against Russia and Iran in the region.

Russia threw in its lot with Bashar al-Assad from the beginning of the Syrian civil war in 2011. Russia needs Assad to remain in power so it can maintain its Mediterranean naval base in Syria. If Assad falls, Russia loses its access to the Mediterranean, which is Europe’s southern flank. Iran needs Assad to retain power in order to keep Iran’s land bridge — a territorial corridor — between Iraq and Lebanon. In this way, Iran can control the region’s Sunnis and threaten Israel and Saudi Arabia.

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By focusing entirely on the tactical fight against ISIS and our fondness for the Kurds, we have lost sight of our resurgent cold war against Putin’s Russia and the Islamic civil war between the Sunnis and Shia. But Russia has not lost sight of us.

Due to Syria’s strategic importance, Russia is willing to fall into the same trap it did in Afghanistan in the 1980s, propping up an unpopular regime against its restive native population. Russia could not economically sustain these efforts in the 1980s and it will have a hard time doing so now, but it will take the gamble because of the prize at stake.

When the dust settles, we will have to confront Russia — and the winner of the Islamic civil war may well come for the West as well.

Iran has made this clear to the US since its revolution in 1979
that began with seizing the US Embassy in Tehran. Since then, Iran has demonstrated its intentions by
conducting terrorist attacks against the US embassies in Beirut and
Kuwait,
hijacking airlines in Europe,
attacking American soldiers in Iraq and has
attempted to strike the US homeland with a terrorist attack.

The Sunni monarchs and dictators keep a tenuous control on their Sunni populace: Each time one falls, terror that threatens the west ensues. The examples of this are recent and alarming. Look no farther than Syria, Iraq, Libya, Egypt or Yemen. When the strongmen fall the Muslim Brotherhood, al-Qaeda, ISIS or some other Salafi-Wahabi group rises.

This is an uncomfortable truth because it leads us to painful reflection on the aftermath of removing Saddam Hussein from power, losing nearly 5,000 American service members in Iraq and spending trillions on rebuilding that country– twice. It’s easy to forget we footed the bill to rebuild the Iraqi army after it crumbled when ISIS crossed into Iraq.

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Trump says US doing very well in Syria as allies hint military plans might change

US troops in Syria have focused so far on fighting ISIS and advising local forces, missions that have not required heavily armored vehicles. And though US forces have been present in the oil fields region, the calculation to bring in reinforcements now centers on the possibility that they may need to deter the Syrian regime and possibly Russian forces as well, these officials say.

Almost two weeks after Trump was engulfed by a firestorm of criticism for his decision to pull troops out of northern Syria, the administration is bending to its critics, particularly Republicans, tweaking its rhetoric in Washington and calibrating its presence in Syria while the military quickly tries to adapt.

An adjusted
Syria plan is expected over the weekend, the President’s allies have told CNN, but already changes are clear.

Two days after Trump’s Wednesday pronouncement that US forces had “defeated 100% of the ISIS Caliphate” and that Turkey, Syria, and others should ensure the terror group does not regain territory, Defense Secretary Mark Esper said Friday the US will remain to fight ISIS and is now strengthening its position in eastern Syria.

“We are reinforcing that position, it will include some mechanized forces … the mission in Syria remains what the mission in Syria began with, it’s always been about defeating the ISIS coalition,” Esper told reporters in Brussels. “That is the core mission.”

Trump had originally said the US would leave Syria but stay “in the region to monitor the situation.” Iraq’s refusal to let US troops stay long-term meant that plan had to be reconsidered. Republican fury, particularly after Turkey responded to the American pullback by attacking the Kurds allied with the US, forced a reconsideration.

The shift underway now on Syria “is consistent with the way the President operates,” said Nora Bensahel, a visiting professor of strategic studies at Johns Hopkins University. “He states one thing and if it doesn’t go over particularly well, he will modify and adjust it and make it look like it was the plan all along. He encountered enormous pushback on what a total pullout would mean for the fight against Islamic State — what you’re seeing now is the response.”

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On Wednesday
Trump insisted from the White House Diplomatic Reception Room that, “we’re getting out … Let someone else fight over this long-bloodstained sand.” But his Republican critics, including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, had been working hard behind the scenes to change the White House approach.

A day later, on Thursday, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham went to a meeting in the White House Situation Room with Trump, eight to ten other GOP senators, Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, and others. Esper made an appearance via video from Brussels, where he has been attending a NATO meeting.

Afterward, Graham told reporters that “I think there is a plan coming together that I could support. We are not there yet, but I was very encouraged.” The new Syria plan will be “presented and developed over the weekend,” he added.

A senior administration official told CNN that Trump “President has made clear that the United States remains fully committed to the enduring defeat of ISIS, which is critical to our national security.” As part of that mission, the US will deny ISIS access to Syrian oil fields, “critical resources and revenue that could allow it to regain strength” and will continue to assist Kurds to do so, the official said.

In Brussels, Esper said that the Pentagon “always intended, as the President directed, to maintain a presence at the At-Tanf garrison,” which sits on the border with Jordan — a request by Jordan and Israel. “We are also considering how we also might re-position forces in the area in order to make sure we secure the oil fields.”

‘Defeat ISIS’

Protecting the oil fields is all “nested underneath the defeat ISIS campaign,” Esper said. “We want to make sure they do not have access to the resources that may allow them to strike within the region, to strike Europe, to strike the United States. Otherwise, all the other forces are intended to return home.”

Defense officials note that while it’s clear the President now wants to keep troops in Syria for at least some time, it’s not clear how long. Though the strategy is being portrayed as a continued anti-ISIS mission, Amb. Jim Jeffrey, the US Envoy for Syria and the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, suggested damaging and long-lasting impact from the President’s haphazard policy moves on Syria.

America’s Kurdish allies, the Syrian Democratic Forces, have lost ground, suffered casualties, seen more than 170,000 people displaced and many say they’ve feel betrayed by the US.

Russia, Turkey, Iran and Syria have all gained an advantage with the US pullback. Hardened ISIS prisoners have escaped and the US is unable to track their whereabouts.

“The Turkish incursion into northeast Syria is a tragedy, it was long standing US government policy in two Administrations to keep that from happening and we were clearly not successful,” Jeffrey told the House Foreign Affairs Committee Wednesday. “ISIS is pitching this as a victory for them,” he said.

Fact-checking Trump's claim that escaped ISIS prisoners were 'largely recaptured'Fact-checking Trump's claim that escaped ISIS prisoners were 'largely recaptured'

The Pentagon said in a statement that “the US is committed to reinforcing our position, in coordination with our SDF partners, in northeast Syria with additional military assets to prevent those oil fields from falling back to into the hands of ISIS or other destabilizing actors,” a reference to Iran.

Privately, however, military officials say there is nothing in place to address the possibility that Syrian or Russian tanks or aircraft might approach the oil fields. The plan for now, officials say, is to declare the US presence and warn other players not to get close.

Officials said it’s now expected that the “mechanized” reinforcements Esper described will mainly be armored vehicles, such as Bradley Fighting Vehicles or Paladin howitzers. The officials said there is an armored brigade in Kuwait that could be used to provide the equipment and troops needed to protect the oil fields.

On Thursday, Graham said approvingly the President has been increasingly intent on keeping oil — potentially $45 million to $50 million a month, he estimated — out of ISIS’ hands.

‘Let’s keep talking’

“It’s adding a new strategic objective that hasn’t been there before, which is denying Syrian oil to the enemy,” Graham explained. Asked if he and other Republicans were emphasizing the oil fields to get the President to line up with his Republican critics and maintain a US presence in Syria, Graham laid out how one military step might lead to another.

Trump understands that “the oil is a key asset,” Graham said, “so I said OK, let’s keep talking. If the money goes to the right people, the SDF, that’s a good thing, it keeps the ISIS fight going. So Mr. President, the oil field won’t guard itself. And once you’re on the ground, you might as well be on the ground with the capability to continue the ISIS fight. So we may be getting there. The key to all of this is air power.”

Securing the oil fields will mean having people on the ground, Graham said, adding that Milley was looking at how to accomplish that. “It’s gonna take some troops on the ground. But the main component is air power. The bulk of the force will be SDF, but there will have to be some of us,” he said.

CNN’s Phil Mattingly, Ryan Browne and Allison Malloy in Washington contributed to this report.