Month: October 2019

Following the 232-196 vote in the House on a resolution guiding impeachment proceedings, the White House is seizing on the two Democrats who voted against it as evidence of “bipartisan” opposition to the measure.

Two White House officials said the administration will continue to argue that it’s a ‘big deal’ two Democrats sided with Republicans in “bipartisan opposition” and that two is actually not such a small number in these partisan times.

“Two has always been a threshold with a bipartisan vote. In today’s partisan times, that’s huge,” one official said.

The White House will try to make the case that leadership wasn’t totally successful with two Democrats jumping over for a vote of this magnitude.

“The only bipartisan thing about this impeachment sham is the opposition to it,” the White House tweeted on its official account.

In terms of the GOP arguments against process being undercut by the Democrats’ vote, officials say that messaging doesn’t need to change as of now because closed-door hearings are still taking place next week. The official said until the President’s team begins getting access to witnesses and is able to exercise due process rights, the White House will continue to argue the process is flawed.

One official said it remains to be seen how it will play out and that Democrats want a trial after the verdict has been reached.

White House officials said the unified Republican opposition — which came after massive pressure from Trump — stands in contrast to the two Democratic defectors.

About the votes: Two votes out of 232 is a minuscule figure and hardly represents a bipartisan consensus and Democrats are largely unified in their approach to impeachment. It is also worth noting that both Democrats who crossed party lines come from districts that Trump won by double digits in 2016. 

Before the vote, Pelosi said she had the votes to pass the resolution but called it a “sad day” because “nobody comes to Congress to impeach a president.”

“Today we move further down the path in our inquiry by putting forth our procedures, which are very transparent and open and frankly more transparent and more open giving more privileges to the President,” Pelosi said.

Pelosi added: “It isn’t about partisanship, it’s about patriotism.”

But House Democrats have said that they intend to hold public hearings as well and the resolution vote comes as the House gears up for that to soon get underway.

The resolution also states that the minority may request witnesses to be called and issue subpoenas — but those subpoenas can only be issued “with the concurrence of the chair,” meaning that Democrats would have to sign off on any Republican-led subpoenas.

The resolution says that the House Intelligence Committee will write a report “setting forth its findings and any recommendations” and that the report will be transmitted to the Judiciary Committee and be made public.

Congressional Republicans and the White House have criticized the way Democrats are conducting the impeachment inquiry as unfair and secretive, and Republicans have called on the full House to hold a vote to authorize the inquiry.

Democrats say Thursday’s vote is not a formal authorization of the impeachment inquiry, but the decision to hold a vote may nevertheless serve to undercut the Trump administration talking point that the inquiry was illegitimate because it did not receive a full House vote.

House Democrats are discussing a time frame that would include public impeachment hearings before Thanksgiving and votes on whether to impeach Trump by Christmas, multiple Democratic sources have told CNN, though the timing remains fluid.

Democrats facing tough races under pressure

The vote on Thursday is expected to pass with the vast majority of Democrats in favor. But it will put pressure on a number of Democrats in tough reelection races to announce whether they approve of the inquiry.

Many of them have already decided to vote for it, discounting Republicans who say that they’ll lose their seats over a resolution that will lay out the procedure of the probe in dry terms.

The National Republican Congressional Committee’s press operation spent much of Wednesday warning that vulnerable Democrats are going to suffer whether they vote for the resolution or not, in either turning off the party’s base or independents opposed to impeaching Trump.

In one email, NRCC press secretary Michael McAdams listed several New Jersey Democrats in competitive House races and charged that “every one of them promised voters they’d deliver on issues like transportation, health care and better-paying jobs, but instead they’ve spent their time in Washington trying to remove President Trump from office.”

Rep. Tom Malinowski, one of the members McAdams named, is also one of the impeachment investigators. He said he is going to vote for the resolution in order to set the ground rules going forward.

“Some of their political operatives from Washington should come to the town halls that I’ve been having,” said Malinowski. “If they did, they wouldn’t be saying that defending the Constitution is something my constituents don’t care about. Those kinds of statements, I think, would be seen as insulting by the people that I represent.”

Another New Jersey Democrat, Rep. Josh Gottheimer, seemed slightly less enthused about voting for the resolution. He told CNN he “likely” would as a way “to get to the facts” without prejudging them. But Gottheimer said what’s “most important” to serving his district were several issues — cutting taxes, standing by cops, fire fighters and military veterans, keeping air and water clean and health care costs low — that did not include impeaching the President.

Almost all Republicans appear to be opposed to the resolution. Despite the seriousness of the allegations that Trump abused his power in asking a foreign government to investigate a political rival, the vote on Thursday will show how much Republicans in Congress support Trump—and how little they care for how Democrats have led the inquiry.

While Republicans have pushed for weeks to open the inquiry to the public, they argue that the Democrats’ move is too little, too late.

“You don’t get another chance to make a first impression,” Rep. Andy Biggs, an Arizona Republican and one of Trump’s strongest defenders in Congress, told CNN.

This story has been updated with additional developments Thursday.

He’s also called on Republicans to stick together, claiming Democrats are “vicious” but are better at remaining united.

In public, Trump has conveyed a desire for his allies in Congress to defend his actions that have led to the impeachment efforts, rather than simply going after the Democrats’ process.

He’s relayed those views in private conversations as well, insisting his efforts to convince Ukraine to investigate his political rivals were above board.

Republicans, meanwhile, have been hesitant to defend Trump’s actions, and some have condemned them. That includes Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, whose criticism led to attacks from Trump.

The President said Monday he had informed Republican lawmakers he wanted to discuss the allegations against him because he thought defending himself against the facts would be easy.

“And, frankly, I told Republicans, who are really being taken advantage of — they’re really being maligned — and I think it’s a horrible thing … So, one thing I said: I’d rather go into the details of the case rather than process,” Trump told reporters Monday at Joint Base Andrews.

“I think you ought to look at the case,” Trump added. “And the case is very simple. It’s quick. It’s so quick.”

Amid increasing frustration from those tasked with defending him, Trump has continued to resist taking steps like creating a war room or hiring additional staff to coordinate impeachment messaging.

Republican members and aides on Capitol Hill have described their exasperation that the White House hasn’t done more to coordinate their messaging with lawmakers, beyond a handful of calls between senior White House officials and conservative allies.

When House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced in late September that House Democrats were launching an impeachment inquiry, White House officials argued it was not a real impeachment probe because lawmakers hadn’t voted on it. They seized on that talking point for weeks as Democrats insisted one wasn’t necessary.

Behind the scenes, officials insisted there wouldn’t be any changes to the President’s legal team and no creation of a war room until they felt the impeachment inquiry was actually happening — and only then would they decide what route they were taking.

As Democrats hold their first formal vote on a resolution laying out the ground rules, there was little to indicate the White House was planning a new approach. Aides inside the administration view this as a serious error.

Meanwhile, officials are distributing talking points seeking to downplay the significance of depositions on Capitol Hill from current and former officials who relayed concerns about Trump’s actions.

In a set sent on Thursday, the Trump campaign insisted Trump’s Ukraine expert Alexander Vindman did not reveal a “quid pro quo” between Trump and Ukraine, and said he “stated that the released transcript of President Trump’s phone call with Ukrainian President Zelensky was accurate.”

The swift return to work for one of the impeachment inquiry’s central witnesses —
who the President and his allies decried as a “never-Trumper” with ulterior motives, even as he remains on the President’s National Security Council staff — illustrates the predicament facing staffers as the proceedings advance.

The impeachment crisis that’s consumed the White House is causing new turbulence at the National Security Council, where officials are wondering whether their efforts are being undermined and worry the President could sour on the entire body, ignoring its expert advice as he fumes about its role in the current crisis.

Already a bumpy workplace under Trump, the National Security Council’s career civil servants now find themselves under fresh scrutiny from an already-skeptical President and his inner circle.

Tim Morrison, the council’s Russia and Europe director, worked with Vindman in handling the Ukraine transcript and is expected to testify Thursday.

But Morrison is expected to leave his post, a long-planned departure that was nonetheless complicated by the current impeachment drama.

“After more than a year of service at the National Security Council, Mr. Morrison has decided to pursue other opportunities — and has been considering doing so for some time. We wish him well,” a senior administration official said in a statement.

Sources familiar with the situation at the council say there is a sense of anxiety among some staffers as they see their colleagues and State Department officials being called to the Capitol Hill to testify in the ongoing impeachment inquiry that has prompted unfounded personal attacks from Republican lawmakers, some in the West Wing and even the President himself.

Trump’s virulent response to Vindman’s testimony — asserting without evidence the National Security Council’s top Ukraine expert is a “never-Trumper” with questionable motives — sent a cold chill through the council’s suite of offices in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building adjacent to the West Wing.

Inside the nearly 150-year-old building next to the White House where the National Security Council is housed, the mood has shifted dramatically.

Uncertain role

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Some National Security Council officials — particularly those not working on top White House priorities like the Middle East or Asia — increasingly feel undervalued and sidelined in the policy-making process, according to people familiar with the dynamic.

Like Vindman, much of the National Security Council staff is drawn from the Pentagon, State Department or the US intelligence agencies. Many are careerists who served under previous administrations, Democratic and Republican.

A demoralized air hangs over the council, knowing their work is treated with skepticism by the West Wing and often doesn’t drive policy decisions in the way a traditional National Security Council would. Often, officials are pressed into service to try and fix problems created in the West Wing on the back end of the decision-making process.

Concerns they could be swept up into the impeachment proceedings have made that more difficult, according to several sources familiar with the situation. One source noted that several National Security Council staffers are worrying about having to hire lawyers when they don’t have the resources to.

Since Trump’s ill-fated July call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, staffers have watched as the mundane inner-workings of their typically inconspicuous council — such as how a transcript of a call with a foreign leader is written reviewed and stored — become public.

“This is the last thing a civil servant wants to get dragged into,” said a former Trump administration National Security Council official who remains in contact with current staff. “The folks that are still there are just trying to keep their head down and focus on their work.”

In their depositions on Capitol Hill, two council officials — Vindman and former Russia director Fiona Hill — both recalled their concerns at apparent attempts to leverage the US relationship with Kiev for political ends. Each said they raised those concerns with their superiors, and ultimately to National Security Council lawyers, a remarkable demonstration of the internal angst among White House professional staff at the actions taken by the President and they people close to him.

Since testifying, Vindman has faced scrutiny within his own ranks. Not seen as a meticulous note taker, his opening statement before lawmakers raised eyebrows among some colleagues who were concerned he would mix up details and cause doubt about what happened.

Still, White House officials acknowledged that Vindman’s credibility stems from his proximity to the call. He was the first official who listened in on the conversation to go under oath, though if House Democrats have their way, he likely won’t be the last.

Distance from Trump

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Trump’s interactions with much of the National Security Council staff have been fleeting, and he has made a point of announcing that some of the most damaging testimony against him comes from people he doesn’t know.

“Why are people that I never even heard of testifying about the call,” he wrote on Twitter on Tuesday just ahead of Vindman’s arrival, in his military uniform, on Capitol Hill.

The list of senior State Department and National Security Council officials who Trump claims are strangers is long. His senior Russia adviser, the architect of US-Ukraine policy, the top diplomat in Kiev: all unknown to the President, he now claims, as they each sit before congressional lawmakers to detail their unease at how he was conducting himself.

The apparent unfamiliarity with his own administration’s senior-most policy aides only confirms what those officials are claiming behind closed doors: that Trump ignored the official diplomatic channels they oversaw in favor of unofficial overtures to Ukraine, led by Trump’s personal attorney Rudy Giuliani, meant to surface dirt on political opponents.

On Ukraine, Trump often favored the advice of people outside the government instead of the professionals inside the administration. He once mistook Hill, a longtime expert on Russia, for a clerical aide during a briefing.

New leadership

Pelosi resisted impeachment demands from liberals in her caucus for months during the controversy over Russian election interference. But she has moved fast against the President since the Ukraine scandal burst into the open, even though the showdown could have unpredictable political consequences, especially if it spills into an election year.

“Mr. Clyburn, our whip, has given me a very good report about our vote tomorrow. He’s the whip, the vote counter. Thank you, Mr. Clyburn,” Pelosi said at an event in Washington on Wednesday night.

The vote could be a tough one for a small corps of Democrats who have yet to back impeachment and for party lawmakers from districts that Trump won in 2016 but that helped Democrats grab back the House last year. It will also give Republicans a chance to make a political point to voters back home by standing with the President — who remains wildly popular among GOP base voters.

The White House is digging in, insisting that Trump did nothing wrong, as the widening contours become clear of a scandal sparked by accusations that he abused his power by seeking political favors from Ukraine.

But the President’s case appeared to absorb new blows on Wednesday.

Democrats open historic process on impeachment

Wednesday’s fast-moving developments in the case came as Democrats convened the House Rules Committee to transition the impeachment inquiry to a more public phase.

The full House will vote on the resolution Thursday following weeks of demands from Republicans for a formal authorization. That step is not required by the Constitution and Democrats insist that Thursday’s vote is merely to formalize the process of pursuing the investigation.

House Rules Chairman Jim McGovern, D-Massachusetts, noted that only three previous presidents have faced the prospect of impeachment during nearly 250 years of US history.

“This is a sad day,” he said. “No one runs for Congress to impeach a president, but we are here today because the facts compel us to be. There is serious evidence that the President may have violated the Constitution.”

But Republicans, who have struggled to directly counter the evidence emerging from the Democratic inquiry, renewed their efforts to portray the process as an unconstitutional sham.

GOP members of the House Rules Committee sought to make the resolution more favorable to their party — and called for wider subpoena powers than the Democratic majority is willing to grant.

“This is nothing more than a fishing expedition,” said Rep. Michael Burgess of Texas.

McGovern replied: “Others call it congressional oversight.”

Republican Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, who as Senate majority leader would facilitate the impeachment trial of the President, slammed the Democratic-led House, saying it is failing to give Trump due process.

“Unfortunately, the draft resolution that has been released does nothing of that sort. If falls way, way short,” he said.

New testimony on core impeachment question

The allegation at the center of the impeachment case is that Trump personally pressured Ukraine’s President to investigate a potential 2020 election rival, Biden, and his family.

Two sources present at Vindman’s deposition said Bolton had instructed the Army lieutenant colonel to prepare a decision memo by August 15 arguing for funds to be released to Ukraine as soon as possible.

Vindman later learned that Trump refused to free up the aid, after the President met Bolton and other senior Cabinet officials at his New Jersey golf resort.

The revelation makes Bolton’s testimony even more potentially crucial. Multiple witnesses have already testified that the former national security adviser had raised alarms about an apparent shadow foreign policy in Ukraine run by Trump’s personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani.

Bolton’s lawyer Charles Cooper said Wednesday that his client would not show up without a subpoena. But it is not clear if he would testify even if he is served.

Bolton’s former aide Charles Kupperman has asked a court to decide whether he should testify despite the White House’s objections. A federal judge will hold a hearing in that case Thursday to set proceedings.

In another federal courtroom, a judge will hear arguments on whether former White House counsel Don McGahn has immunity from testifying in the impeachment investigation.

Morrison testimony could bolster impeachment case

There are already indications that Morrison’s testimony could be among the most crucial so far.

CNN has reported that he will corroborate key elements of Taylor’s account that Trump was pressing for Ukraine to publicly announce investigations into Biden, and his son Hunter.

Morrison’s name was cited 15 times in Taylor’s opening statement, which Democrats view as damning for Trump.

News that he is leaving his job soon after 15 months on the National Security Council raised expectations that he could become the latest official to provide evidence deemed damaging to the President.

A stream of career foreign service or military officials have effectively sidestepped the White House’s ambition of clamping a policy of noncooperation with the Democratic impeachment process.

Ahead of the House vote on Thursday, Republican members signaled they would stick with a strategy of criticizing the process — despite a push by Trump and allies for a more direct defense against the substance of the Democrats’ charges.

The President fired off another blast of furious tweets at the Democratic investigators and the witnesses cooperating with the probe as part of his wider misinformation campaign.

He claimed that Vindman “could find NO Quid Pro Quo in the Transcript of the phone call. There were many people listening to the call. How come they (including the President of Ukraine) found NOTHING wrong with it. Witch Hunt!”

Sen. William Cohen, a Maine Republican and former US defense secretary, compared Trump’s rhetoric to that of George Orwell’s novel “1984” and said the President sounded like a dictator.

“He feels that he alone can take action, without regard to any of the other institutions which are there to make sure that the rule of law stays intact,” Cohen told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour.

“Unlike the process up to this point, I think it is important the Senate process be viewed as fair and serious and give serious consideration to whatever the House is going to bring us,” said Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, a member of the Republican leadership, who added that he is “very doubtful that there will be some immediate attempt to try to dismiss the charges.”

Sen. David Perdue, a Republican from Georgia who is close to Trump, said there’s been so much “innuendo and stuff done behind closed-doors” during the House impeachment inquiry that he “personally would welcome an open and fulsome debate.”

“What I want to hear is both sides of the argument. The trial is in the Senate not in the House,” Perdue said in an interview. “But I don’t see this taking weeks and weeks and weeks. This is a very isolated accusation so I would hope we could get a look at it and get it done and give this President due process.”

What McConnell is thinking

“I haven’t heard anyone espousing a quick dismissal,” said Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, a West Virginia Republican. “I certainly think we need to hear it out from the House. This is a serious thing. When you are considering removing somebody from office or impeaching them in that way. I think you’ve got to hear it.”

But there is a temptation by some Republicans — frustrated by what they see as a political exercise in the House aimed at undoing the last election and exhausted by the daily drumbeat of negative news about the President — to use the power of their majority votes to throw out the case as soon as they get it.

“We’ve had this conversation among some of us,” said a GOP senator who asked not to be identified to discuss candid thinking in the Republican caucus. “There’s no decision yet but as you know, under the rules, we think that you could have a motion to dismiss raised at any time in the process, even on the first day, with a 50-vote majority and the Vice President breaking the tie. You could dismiss it.”

Senators of both parties are studying the arcane impeachment rules and looking back on the trials of Clinton and President Andrew Jackson, the only other president to be impeached. They say it’s hard to lay out too specifically a roadmap of what to expect in a Trump trial because much of it will be driven by Chief Justice John Roberts, who will preside over the case and rule on motions.

Before the Clinton trial, Republicans and Democrats — who served in an arguably slightly less partisan time than now — agreed on a set of rules for the proceedings that included allowing Byrd to get a vote on a motion of dismissal two weeks in.

Sen. Kevin Cramer, a Republican from North Dakota, said he doubts the current Senate could agree to a resolution like the one in 1999 and may have to use existing rules.

“The rules as they exist provide the opportunity for either the lawyers for the President or the managers from the House (to be) the only ones who can make that motion — anytime,” Cramer said. “A second layer of rules, that would overlay the original rules, would require some sort of resolution to be passed by the chamber. That would provide the opportunity for senators to make (the motion to dismiss.)”

Either way, Cramer said it would be a mistake to quickly dismiss, both from a political and due process reasons.

“I don’t think it would be wise to dismiss on a 51-49 vote on the first morning or the first afternoon,” he said. “We would owe it at that point to ourselves to at least hear what they are presenting. If within a couple of days, or a few days, it is clear they don’t have impeachable evidence, then perhaps a motion to dismiss would be in order,” he said.

Unclear if the votes to dismiss are there

It’s not immediately clear if Republicans, who hold a 53-47 advantage over the Democrats, could get the votes to dismiss. Some senators, especially those running for reelection next year, may be wary of not giving the evidence a thorough review, but for now most won’t comment.

“Until I see what I see what the House presents to us, I truly can’t make any judgments like that,” said Sen. Susan Collins, a Republican from Maine who is up for reelection in a state that’s trending Democratic. “I just don’t know what various colleagues will decide to do.”

Other senators who have been critical of Trump, also want to hold off deciding if they might support a motion of dismissal.

GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska said it’s “way too early for us to have that discussion.”

Sen. Mitt Romney, a Utah Republican, said: “I think anything related to the impeachment process, I’m going to wait until all the facts come it, before I comment.”

Freshman Republican Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri said “it is important to follow the Constitutionally-prescribed procedures no matter what they may be.”

“It is my understanding that there is no provision for us that would allow us to say we aren’t going to take this up. We do have to proceed into a trial-like setting,” he said.

“Once we go into that setting, what happens next? How far do we go into it? I think those are all open questions,” he added.

“He led them across a 100-meter valley of ice-covered boulders and through a fast-moving, waist-deep river on a rescue mission up the mountain,” and, according to the Pentagon, later “braved the enemy onslaught” to administer first aid to a soldier hit by a sniper. Williams then helped the wounded personnel scale down a “near-vertical, 60-foot mountain.”

Williams also led a counterattack alongside Afghan commandos when the group faced “some 200 combatants.” He was able to keep “the enemy at bay until helicopters were able to fly in and evacuate the wounded.”

“For more than a decade, Matt has stared down our enemies, fought back (against) the forces of terror and exemplified the virtue and gallantry of the American warrior,” Trump said. “He has completed five tours in Afghanistan, a deployment in Africa, and he continues to serve our country on active duty today.”

The Medal of Honor is the most prestigious decoration in the US military. Recipients of the award must have demonstrated “incontestable proof of the performance of the meritorious conduct, and each recommendation for the award must be considered on the standard of extraordinary merit.”

South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg’s 10% in this poll qualifies him for the December debate along two different polling thresholds. He’s now only the fourth candidate (along with Biden, Sanders and Warren) to qualify for that debate. 

But the good news in this poll for Buttigieg goes beyond merely qualifying. Yes, his topline of 10% didn’t move up since July. Other key numbers did move up for him, however. 

Buttigieg’s favorable rating jumped from 48% to 55%. His favorable-to-unfavorable rating ratio of 3.7 is the highest of any of the top candidates. 

Buttigieg is now the second choice of 10% of likely primary voters. It was 6% in July. He’s the only candidate with at least 10% in first choice to see their second choice percentage go up since July. 

Perhaps even more important is that 0% of voters say they wouldn’t vote for Buttigieg under any circumstance. For Biden, Sanders and Warren, it’s 11%, 7% and 11%, respectively. 

The lack of dislike for Buttigieg is important in an unsettled field. It means voters of other candidates might be willing to settle on him. 

Indeed, there’s not a big age or ideological pattern to Buttigieg’s support that we see for the other candidates in New Hampshire. The only noticeable divide is Buttigieg does better among college graduates, just like Warren. 

The fact that Buttigieg escapes most of the divides marking the support of the other candidates may also give him a better shot of picking up support from an array of candidates down the road. 

The former Vice President does continue to hold an edge among older likely voters, though, with 22% of those age 50 and older favoring Biden, 17% Warren and 11% Sanders. He also fares better among moderate and conservative likely primary voters than among liberals, holding 20% support vs. 17% for Sanders and 10% each for Warren and Buttigieg.

Warren and Sanders are far and away the top choices of the state’s liberal likely voters (28% back Warren and 26% Sanders, double-digits ahead of Biden at 9% and Buttigieg at 8%).

Sanders dominates the contest among younger voters (31% of likely voters under age 50 back him, 12 points ahead of Warren, 21 points ahead of Buttigieg and 23 points ahead of Biden in that group), and tops his nearest competitor by 10 points among men (24% Sanders, 14% Biden and 13% Warren).

Warren holds the edge among college graduates (23% back her, 16% Sanders, 14% Biden and 13% Buttigieg), and runs about even with Sanders among women (21% Warren, 19% Sanders).

Still, with 105 days to go until the primary, only 23% of likely Democratic primary voters say they have definitely decided whom to support.

The poll, which is among those used by the DNC to determine which candidates qualify for upcoming debates in November and December, qualifies Buttigieg to take the stage in December. It marks Gabbard’s second of four needed qualifying polls for the November debate, and a first qualifying poll for Gabbard, Klobuchar and Yang for the December debate.

Issues and attributes

Biden continues to be seen as the Democratic candidate with the best chance to win in the general election: 36% say so, well ahead of all other candidates. But Warren has gained ground on this question since July, rising from 9% to 18%.

Sanders has widened his edge as the most progressive candidate in the field: 47% see him that way, up from 40% who said the same in July. Warren has slipped on this measure, dipping from 23% to 18%. Sanders has also pulled ahead when likely voters are asked to name the most likeable candidate in the field, 27% name him, 20% Biden, 14% Buttigieg and 10% Warren.

Sanders tops the field as best able to handle health care (33% Sanders, 17% Warren, 15% Biden) and the climate crisis (30% Sanders and 15% Warren) — the two issues which top New Hampshire Democratic voters’ priority list — while lagging a bit behind Warren (21%) and Biden (20%) on the economy (15% say Sanders would be best on that). Biden comes out on top when it comes to foreign policy (41% Biden and 12% each Warren and Sanders). Likely voters are split over who can best handle gun policies, with 14% each naming Warren and Sanders, 12% Biden, 8% former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke and 6% Buttigieg. A sizable share of likely voters, though, say they aren’t sure whom to trust on each of these issues, ranging from 18% unsure about health care and foreign policy to 31% on gun policies.

Favorability ratings for the top candidates haven’t changed much for the top candidates since July, with unfavorable ratings inching up for Warren, Sanders, Biden and Buttigieg, but only Buttigieg substantially improving the positive side as well (his favorability rating rose 7 points to 55%).

Two less-well-known candidates saw substantial increases in their favorability numbers since July. About a quarter saw Klobuchar favorably in the July poll (24% favorable to 13% unfavorable); that’s climbed to 40% now, with 16% on the negative side. Yang’s numbers have also improved, with his favorability rating rising 19 points to 36%, turning around a net negative favorability rating (17% favorable to 19% unfavorable in July) into a net positive one by 12 points.

Republican primary not much of a race

Even as some other early states have cancelled their Republican primaries, both New Hampshire and the first-in-the-nation caucus state of Iowa do plan to hold Republican contests. The poll suggests it won’t be much of a fight, though. President Donald Trump continues to dominate among likely GOP primary voters, 86% of them support Trump, 5% former Massachusetts Gov. William Weld, and 1% each former congressmen Mark Sanford and Joe Walsh. More than 6 in 10 say they have definitely decided whom to support (61%).

None of Trump’s announced competitors hold a net positive favorability rating among the pool of likely Republican primary voters, and majorities are express neutral opinions or are unsure how they feel about Walsh, Sanford and Weld.

Trump unpopular but New Hampshire opposes impeachment

Hillary Clinton eked out a victory in New Hampshire in 2016 by just under 3,000 votes, and the state will likely remain a crucial battleground state in the 2020 general election. And as 2020 approaches, the president’s approval rating in the state tilts negative. Among all adults, 44% approve of Trump’s job performance while 52% disapprove.

But the state is not on board with impeaching and removing Trump from office. Overall, 51% say they oppose impeaching and removing Trump while 42% say they support it. Among the state’s independents, just 35% favor impeachment and removal.