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Borneo is burning: The climate bomb experts say is fueled by the West

Kalimantan, Indonesia (CNN) — Deep within the jungles of Indonesian Borneo, illegal fires rage, creating apocalyptic red skies and smoke that has spread as far as Malaysia and Singapore.

People are choking. Animals are dying.

This is no ordinary fire. It was lit for you.

Farmers are clearing land the fastest way they know how to cash in on growing demand for palm oil, which is used in half of all supermarket products, from chocolate to shampoo.

They’re not only burning the forest, they’re destroying the peatlands that lie beneath it — the world’s largest natural terrestrial carbon sink.

Fire data by NASA FIRMS, NRT VIIRS 375m Active Fire product, for all of September 2019. Map credit: Maps4news.com/©HERE

Experts say the annual infernos have ignited a climate bomb with disastrous consequences for the world in years to come.

And the fires will keep burning, they say, until Western consumers say no.

Firefighters work in tropical heat, breathing toxic air, for as little as $8 a day.

Some fires are so remote they must travel more than an hour in wooden boats loaded with equipment, then hike several miles through the jungle.

At the fire front, they dig makeshift wells and rig up generators to pump water to douse the flames.

“We are fighting here almost two weeks already … stay in here, sleep in here,” Krisyoyo, leader of a patrol team with the Center for International Sustainable Tropical Peatland (CIMTROP) says, as he hoses down flames. “The fire (is) coming I think from humans,” says Krisyoyo, who like many Indonesians only goes by one name.

About 9,000 firefighters were deployed to fight the fires on the ground this summer.

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Indonesian firefighters attempt to dampen the jungle blaze. Credit: Rebecca Wright/CNN

Helicopters are bombing them from above.

CNN boarded a Soviet-designed Mi-8 helicopter for a water-bombing mission near the epicenter of the fires over Central Kalimantan.

Ukrainian pilot Ivan Kravchenko hovered his aircraft over the Kahayan River and scooped up 4,000 liters of water in a giant bucket hanging from a hole in the floor of the chopper. It was then dumped on the flames — a process repeated dozens of times during our flight.

Kravchenko is one of a team of specialist pilots, many of whom have been brought in from Kazakhstan and Ukraine, who fly up to three missions a day.

“Whole time dangerous,” says Kravchenko. “Because it’s all flight at low altitude and sometimes in bad visibility, so we need to be very careful.”

They can never be sure if the fire is out.

Fires smolder deep underground in thick layers of dead plant matter –- peatlands — and can reignite almost as soon as they’re extinguished.

“When they start burning, it feels like a losing battle,” says Alpius Patanan, head of the local emergency operations division.

These fires were ignited by humans, but can only be put out by nature.

“My hope is rain will be coming faster, and rain hard,” Krisyoyo says. “Hopefully our forest (will) still (be) standing, for the future.”

At the peak of the fires in September, the sky turned orange.

“It was just like science fiction,” says Dr Kevin Sutrapura from Palangkaraya Hospital, the main hospital in Central Kalimantan.

“It’s always like an orange filter, everything is orange … it was dark here, like 12 o’clock in the afternoon, it feels like 5 p.m.”

This summer, nearly 920,000 people were treated for acute respiratory problems caused by the fires, according to the Indonesia’s disaster agency.

“People were coming, panicking,” says Sutrapura.

“We decided to open an oxygen house, where people could start to use oxygen, in there we could screen which ones are the patients who need another type of advanced medical care.”

Many of the people who needed treatment came from small villages.

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An emergency worker douses his eyes with water to protect them from the thick haze. Credit: Rebecca Wright/CNN

Palm oil may be exposing many in this developing country of 264 million people to severe health risks.

Yet it’s also bringing wealth.

“Before I grew palm fruit, I couldn’t afford to often feed chicken to my children,” says Talan, an oil palm farmer from Berau, East Kalimantan. “(Now) I can feed them different foods including chicken. I can also afford to buy appliances like a TV and a refrigerator.”

Talan is one of the smallholders that make up around 40% of Indonesia’s palm oil producers.

He farms two hectares of land with a total of 400 oil palm trees, which he harvests twice a month.

He says he has quadrupled his monthly earnings to $400, compared to when he farmed rice or rubber a decade ago.

Village chief Surya Emi Susianthi says palm oil has transformed the entire community.

“Years ago, many here did not have cars and their children did not go to school because they couldn’t afford to pay school fees,” Susianthi says.

“But after growing palm trees, they can buy cars, build good houses and put their children in school.”

Borneo is home to one of the world’s oldest rainforests.

It’s a living, breathing natural history museum filled with 15,000 plants, 420 types of bird and 222 mammals — many of them unique to Borneo.

The known inhabitants include pygmy elephants, clouded leopards, sun bears, mouse deer, flying fox bats, pangolins, and most famous of all, the Bornean orangutan.

One of the closest genetic relatives to humans, these great apes share 97% of our DNA.

Orangutan even translates to ‘man of the forest’ in Indonesian.

“Orangutans are incredible animals in many ways, they’re very human-like,” says Mark Harrison, a Co-Director for the Borneo Nature Foundation who studied orangutans for a PhD.

“They have very complicated social lives and they’re really intelligent animals.”

But these precious mammals are now one of the most critically endangered species on the planet.

Sources: Orangutan distribution: The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Version 2019-2. www.iucnredlist.org. Downloaded Nov. 19, 2019. Deforestation: University of Maryland, Google, USGS and NASA analysis of satellite imagery; Global Forest Watch

Popi arrived at the Center for Orangutan Protection (COP) when she was a few weeks old.

The charity, in Berau, East Kalimantan, is Indonesia’s only orangutan rehabilitation center founded and run by local staff.

Many of the rescued animals are victims of deforestation, including Popi.

“Popi is too lazy today. She just wants to play with the human,” release handler Nursanti says, as she nudges the baby orangutan up a tree trunk in the forest.

Almost every day, the staff escort the orangutans into the jungle for what they term “forest school,” so they can learn how to climb trees, find food and make nests.

The aim is for successful pupils to graduate to “college” — COP’s orangutan island on the nearby Kelay River.

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Handler Nursanti carries a young orangutan. The Center for Orangutan Protection helps rescued animals learn vital life skills in the wild. Credit: Rebecca Wright/CNN

There, they are left alone, but regularly fed and monitored, and if they adapt well, they will eventually be released into the wild.

CNN takes a trip to orangutan island on a long, narrow, motorized canoe.

There, we find Michelle, an eight-year-old female who was released onto the island in May. She is not doing well.

She lumbers towards our boat when we come near, and appears to want to interact with us. But orangutans don’t like water, so she quickly edges away from the shoreline.

Later, we see her swinging in the trees. Her handlers say she usually spends too much time on the ground for an arboreal species, and she relies mostly on them to bring her food.

It’s dangerous for orangutans to be too tame.

“The predator is not only the animal but also the human,” Nursanti says. “Sometimes we try to make them afraid, then they can survive.”

“Last year we found an orangutan hit with 130 bullets,” says COP Director Ramadhani, who goes by one name.

The orangutan was found by villagers in East Kutai, in East Kalimantan. It was taken for treatment to the Kutai National Park in nearby Bontang, but died of its injuries.

At the local district court, authorities say the four accused in the case were each found guilty and sentenced to seven months in prison and fines of 50 million rupiah (about US$ 3,500). But then the fine was replaced by two months in jail, making a total sentence of nine months each.

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Some of the orangutans arrive with bullet wounds inflicted by farmers who see them as pests. Credit: Center for Orangutan Protection

In Indonesia, it’s illegal to kill orangutans — punishable by up to five years in prison and a 100 million rupiah fine ($7,100). But Ramadhani says the penalties are too weak to act as a deterrent.

He says the orangutans’ real enemy is palm oil.

“Please no more. Just stop it,” Ramadhani says of the forest-clearing operations. “I think it’s enough palm oil in here.”

“My dream is in 20 years, I bring my daughter, (and) go to the forest,” he says, his eyes welling up with tears. “Real forest where they can eat fruit, they can see the animals, real animals, not in a zoo. I want my daughter to see that.”

A different sort of human threat to the orangutan habitat may also be on the horizon: the planned move of the Indonesian capital, Jakarta — the fastest-sinking city on earth, due to rising sea levels — to a largely unsettled part of Borneo in East Kalimantan.

The government says the development will not harm the environment, but campaigners are concerned.

“There needs to be a very clear policy and implementation (on) how to reduce the impact of having that new capital,” says Annisa Rahmawati, a forest campaigner for Greenpeace Indonesia. “There is a potential natural reserve in there, (which) will be destroyed and damaged.”

Indonesia in the midst of a modern-day gold rush.

In less than 20 years, the country’s palm oil exports have surged almost 1,500% to $20.7 billion in 2017. It’s now the country’s number one export.

Indonesia supplies more than half of the world’s palm oil.

Each of us is estimated to consume 17 pounds (8 kilograms) of it per year.

Palm oil is used in around half of all products found in supermarkets, including margarine, ice cream, pizza and soap. In parts of Africa and Asia, it is also widely used as a cooking oil.

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Palm oil production surged over the last 50 years as global demand grew, with farmers attracted to its high crop yields. Credit: CNN

Driving through the once pristine landscape of Indonesian Borneo, the devastation wrought by palm oil plantations begins to hit home.

For hours, we pass by miles and miles of uniform rows of oil palms, and we’re regularly overtaken by large trucks steaming past piled high with palm fruits, or carrying the crude oil.

Palm oil originated in Africa and was brought to Indonesia and Malaysia during the colonial era.

It has become known as a wonder crop for tropical climates, due to its versatility and high yield compared to other vegetable oils like soy, coconut or sunflower.

Increasingly, palm oil is being used for biofuels, driven by climate policies encouraging the use of planet-friendly alternatives to oil and gas.

But in reality, palm oil biodiesel emits three times more carbon emissions than fossil fuel diesel, when you take into account its other environmental costs, according to the European Federation for Transport and the Environment, citing a 2016 Globiom study.

Despite this, many countries use palm oil biodiesel to count towards their targets under the Paris Climate Agreement.

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Though bio-energy accounts for only a small percentage of palm oil use, its environmental impact is considered a growing risk. Credit: CNN

The EU has now started phasing out this type of biofuel, until it becomes more sustainable and does not cause deforestation.

Indonesia plans to contest this ruling at the World Trade Organization.

The size and scale of the palm oil industry, and its impact on public health and the environment, is now causing alarm bells even among industry insiders.

“It’s now way out of our control in Indonesia,” says Tiur Rumondang, Indonesia Country Director for the Roundtable for Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO). “I think it’s because we just let them grow organically, without a very clear plan.”

The RSPO, a global sustainable certification body, was created in 2004 in response to growing criticism of the palm oil industry.

“Our goal is to transform the market, to make the sustainable palm oil a norm,” Rumondang says.

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A mountain of raw oil palm fruit awaits processing at a plantation. Credit: Tom Booth

The RSPO prohibits its members from starting land clearance fires and from planting on peatlands, and monitors plantations using satellite technology.

Currently, the RSPO only represents a fifth of the industry in Indonesia, and often the non-certified companies flout the regulations, Rumondang says.

Despite the extent of this year’s crisis, there is still no sense of urgency within the industry to make big changes, so the fires are likely to keep happening, she warns.

The government is sending mixed messages.

In September 2018, Indonesian President Joko Widodo, who is known as Jokowi, imposed a moratorium on new palm oil plantations using government land, and established a peatland restoration agency.

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Source: David Gaveau, CIFOR; Borneo Atlas https://atlas.cifor.org

Yet this summer, in the midst of the forest fires, the government mandated an increase in the use of palm oil blended with diesel to make biofuel for the domestic market, to reduce oil import costs.

Indonesia’s biodiesel production is expected to increase 43% to 8 billion liters in 2019, a USDA report says.

Despite that, the President says restoration of the forests is a key priority.

“Of course, the replanting of forests will be pushed, especially for conserved areas,” he said. “In the next five years, we will focus on this, so that forests in Indonesia can be protected from destruction.”

Two barefoot suspects walk into the room dressed in orange jumpsuits, their faces covered by balaclavas to protect their identity.

They are among 228 people arrested in six provinces affected by fire this summer, according to figures from the Indonesian police.

The men are accused of starting fires in the city of Palangkaraya, in Central Kalimantan, and agreed to speak to CNN on condition of anonymity.

One of the men says he was burning grass cuttings near his home and later doused the fire with water, convinced he had put it out.

Local police say the fire continued to burn deep underground on peatland and three days later, it had wiped out around 10 hectares of land.

“On the outside, on the surface, it’s snuffed out, but underground the ember was still burning,” says Edie Sutaata, Adjunct Police Commissioner with Palangkaraya Police. “It took weeks for the fire to be completely extinguished.”

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Men accused of starting fires in Palangkaraya, in Central Kalimantan. Offenders can face up to 10 years in prison. Credit: Ivan Watson/CNN

The second prisoner said he started a fire to clear some land in order to build a new hut.

“I made a little fire. It immediately spread,” he said, adding that the punishment of 10 years in prison is too harsh for accidental cases.

“I didn’t create that much of a fire,” he says. “It was just so I could build a hut. And it’s on my own land.”

A lack of intent is not a defense, Sutaata says. “If someone through negligence causes a fire that endangers the public, the act is considered a crime.”

Better public awareness is needed to prevent small fires such as these being started, he says. Education is also needed on a provincial level to warn people of the risks.

“Every time we are lax about public education and law enforcement, the people will start burning the forest and the land again,” Hendra Rohmawan, the Grand Commissioner of Central Kalimantan Police says.

Offenders can be fined up to 10 billion rupiah ($700,000) and face up to 10 years in prison.

“Forest fire is a serious crime,” says Rasio Ridho Sani, Director General of Law Enforcement for Indonesia’s Ministry of Environment and Forestry tells CNN.

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Trucks drive down a highway with lush jungle on one side and burnt remains on the other. Credit: Tom Booth

Sani says the government has multiple ways of targeting companies accused of starting the fires. After the forest fire crisis in 2015, a special taskforce was created to help preserve the forests.

Since then, 21 cases were brought to court, three palm oil companies have had their licenses revoked, and 64 administrative sanctions have been imposed.

“We hope that our intensive effort in law enforcement, using administration sanctions, civil lawsuits and also criminal law, will create deterrent effects,” Sani says.

The problem is, they aren’t.

The courts have ruled on nine of the court cases so far, handing out a total of $250 million in fines. But Sani admits that only one fine has actually been paid.

“All the companies that were taken to court and had a guilty verdict, they’re not paying the sanctions to government,” says Ratri Kusumohartono from Greenpeace Indonesia. “It accomplishes nothing, it doesn’t give them (a) deterrent effect on why they should stop burning and stop draining peatlands.”

“What we need (is) the total change in how to enforce the current laws.”

Tiur Rumondang, Roundtable for Sustainable Palm Oil

A government audit this year found that 81% of palm oil plantations broke regulations, including encroaching on protected areas and failing to meet national sustainability standards.

“What we need (is) the total change in how to enforce the current laws,” says Rumondang from RSPO.

“If we just do it halfway, we should always expect this forest and land fire in the future. We need to change everything, not only RSPO, but also the local government, not only Indonesia but also other countries.”

The problem of palm oil is not isolated to Indonesia.

It comes back to the global companies buying the oil, and the choices of consumers.


New analysis by Greenpeace in its report ‘Burning Down the House’ accuses international companies including Unilever, Mondelez, Nestle and several others of using suppliers linked to thousands of this year’s fires. Some of the suppliers are also under public investigation for starting illegal fires, the report says.

“Companies have created a facade of sustainability, but the reality is that they source from the very worst offenders across the board,” says Annisa Rahmawati, a forest campaigner from Greenpeace Indonesia. “The companies responsible for the fires and those who financially benefit from them should be held accountable for these environmental atrocities and the devastating health impacts caused by the fires.”

US snack maker Mondelez International, which uses palm oil in products such as Oreo cookies and Ritz crackers, requires suppliers to “convert their entire supply chain” to “sustainable practices,” a spokesperson tells CNN.

“We will take action against verified fire allegations and any producers shown to be part of groups we’ve previously excluded,” the spokesperson says. “These new cases highlight the urgent need for sector-wide monitoring to provide one source of verified data about deforestation by palm oil plantation companies.”

Nestle, which uses palm oil in Kit Kat bars, is “deeply concerned about the forest fires in Indonesia” and is “strongly opposed to deforestation,” a spokesperson says.

“We are currently investigating and verifying occurrences of land cleared through burning,” the Nestle spokesperson says. “We will immediately cease sourcing from any supplier found to be linked to any deforestation activity. Ten suppliers have already been removed from the Nestle palm oil supply chain for not complying.”

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A fire burns in the Borneo jungle. Failure to protect the rainforests could result in a devastating environmental casualty. Credit: Rebecca Wright/CNN

Consumer goods giant Unilever — which uses palm oil products in toiletries such as Dove and Lux soaps — has been “leading efforts to end deforestation,” a spokesperson says.

“In relation to previous concerns, we have already suspended sourcing from a number of suppliers mentioned in the report,” the spokesperson says. “We are currently reviewing the full list of companies to understand any possible links to our extended supply chain and, in line with our palm oil policy, will take any appropriate action.”

In Indonesia, the dry season and the wait for precious rains is finally coming to an end, but the cost of this summer’s crisis to the environment and the local population is being laid bare. The failure to protect the rainforests known as Asia’s Amazon — a vital set of lungs for the planet — could result in one of the world’s most devastating environmental casualties in the quest for profit and human consumption.

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These Texas shelter animals will get to eat Thanksgiving meals and thats something were thankful for

Dozens of volunteers were hard at work one day before Thanksgiving preparing 600 delicious meals for the temporary residents of the Fort Worth animal shelter.

There was a station for grain-free dehydrated dog food, another for pumpkins, another for green beans and another for chicken.

“And we’ve got some runners moving all of (the meals) into the freezer, where they’ll go until we feed the dogs tomorrow,” the shelter said in
a Facebook live video.

All of the food prepared was donated by the public as well as volunteers, the shelter said.

One lucky shelter dog, Reilly, who has been at the shelter for more than three months, got a taste of the meal on Wednesday.

Reilly, one of the dogs at the shelter who is waiting to be adopted, devoured his Thanksgiving meal a day early.Reilly, one of the dogs at the shelter who is waiting to be adopted, devoured his Thanksgiving meal a day early.

He approved.

The shelter will pass out the food Thursday morning, when it hosts another Facebook live, it said.

If that isn’t a story to be thankful about, we don’t know what is.

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Live updates: Bomb cyclone and winter storms – CNN

Are you traveling today and returning this weekend? Expect to feel some déjà vu. 

A very similar weather pattern is taking shape for this weekend with a storm moving from the Midwest Saturday into the Northeast Sunday and a new storm moving into the West on Saturday and Sunday.

Expect more snow in the Sierra, Rockies and across the northern Plains into the Midwest.

The difference is that the East Coast storm on Sunday could have even more significant weather impacts on travel than today’s storm. 

Temperatures are likely to be cold enough for snow in the major Northeast metro area on Sunday morning. By the afternoon, the precipitation will become rain. 

On the West Coast, rain may have some impacts in Los Angeles on Saturday. San Francisco should expect more delays with showers starting Saturday and lasting through Sunday.

Forecast travel disruption
Forecast travel disruption
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A man ate hotpot and ended up with tapeworms in his brain

About a month ago, Zhu (a pseudonym for the patient), from Luzhou, in eastern Zhejiang province, bought pork and mutton to cook in a spicy hot pot broth, according to a report published last week by the
First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University.

A few days later, he began to feel dizzy, and suffered headaches during the day, the report said. During the night, while he was sleeping, Zhu would experience seizure-like symptoms, similar to epilepsy.

Zhu’s coworkers found him during such a seizure, and quickly sent him to a nearby hospital, where a CT scan showed “intercranial calcifications” and lesions in his skull. However, Zhu declined any further examinations, not wanting to spend more money, and returned home, according to the report.

Teen dies of tapeworm larvae infestation in the brainTeen dies of tapeworm larvae infestation in the brain

However, the symptoms did not go away and Zhu continued experiencing seizures. Finally, he went to the Zhejiang University hospital, where doctors performed an MRI scan and diagnosed him with neurocysticercosis — tapeworms on the brain.

After hearing that Zhu had eaten hot pot recently, the hospital’s chief physician speculated that the pork and mutton may have been infested with tapeworm larvae — which could then have entered Zhu’s digestive tract because the meat had not been cooked properly.

“I only simmered the meat a little,” Zhu said in the report. “The bottom of the pot with the spicy broth was red, so you couldn’t see if the meat had been cooked thoroughly.”

Zhu has since recovered, after doctors removed the tapeworms and reduced the pressure on his brain, the report said.

Unusual symptoms pointing to brain cancer turned into something completely differentUnusual symptoms pointing to brain cancer turned into something completely different

Neurocysticercosis is a parasitic infection that is contracted when someone swallows tapeworm eggs that have passed in the feces of another person who has an intestinal tapeworm. The larvae crawl out of the eggs and into muscle and brain tissues, where they form cysts — like the “calcifications” observed in Zhu’s CT scans.

Cysticercosis infections occur worldwide, though these parasitic invasions of the human body mostly occur in rural areas of countries where pigs are allowed to roam and where sanitation practices are poor, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Though these infections may be rare among people who live in countries where pigs do not have contact with human feces, cysticercosis can be acquired anywhere in the world, including the United States and other Western nations. Just this June, a New York resident reported experiencing hallucinations and disorientation, which doctors believed was due to a brain tumor — until they discovered
a baby tapeworm in her brain.
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Trump impeachment inquiry: Live updates – CNNPolitics

After five days of public hearings in House Democrats’ impeachment inquiry into Trump, public opinion over whether the President ought to be impeached and removed from office remains exactly the same as it was in October, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.

  • Half of Americans say Trump should be impeached and removed from office.
  • Meanwhile, 43% say he should not be.

Neither figure has changed since October, with support for impeachment remaining at its highest level thus far in CNN polling.

The partisan divide over the President persists as well, with roughly 80 points between Democratic support for Trump’s removal and Republican support for it. 

Independents are closely divided on the question, 47% in favor, 45% opposed. Opinions on both sides are deeply held, with about 9 in 10 on either side saying they feel strongly in favor or against it.

Read more about the poll here.

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CNNs latest poll on 2020 Democrats – CNNPolitics

One of the most enduring trademarks of President Donald Trump’s polling is that a plurality approve of his job on the economy, yet a plurality also disapprove of the job he’s doing as President overall.

The answer to why that is comes very clearly in our poll.

We asked Americans about five qualities often associated with being a good president: a change agent, honesty, effective government management, ability to unite the country and stamina and sharpness to be president.

A majority on all five of these qualities say that they don’t apply to Trump. The only one that is close at all is stamina and sharpness. On that quality, 52% say it doesn’t apply to Trump while 47% say it does.

Which of these qualities seems to be most closely associated with how Americans feel overall about Trump? It’s effective government management and being a change agent.

A nearly unanimous 96% of those who disapprove of Trump overall say he cannot manage the government effectively. Similarly, 92% of those who approve of Trump overall say he can manage the government effectively. For change agent, 94% who approve say he can manage effectively, while 945 who disapprove say he cannot.

I don’t think these high correlations are too surprising. The President’s job is to run the government. If she or he cannot do that in the eyes of the country, then the President is poor electoral shape. Likewise, Trump ran as a change agent, so it’s closely associated with his overall brand.

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What past impeachments tell us about Trumps 2020 prospects

Yet the outcomes in the next presidential elections converged. In each case, the president’s party lost the White House to a candidate — Democrat Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Republican George W. Bush in 2000 — who played off lingering public unease about the scandal that had precipitated the impeachment process against their predecessor. In each instance, impeachment functioned like a leak that corroded the foundation under the president’s party in the next election.

Those precedents suggest the revelations about Trump’s conduct in the Ukraine investigation could complicate his path to a second term, whatever polls say now about the public response to his potential impeachment and removal from office. Recent polls indicate that while the controversy is not reducing the share of Americans who approve of Trump’s job performance, it does appear to be hardening the opposition he faces among those who disapprove of him.

“The whole impeachment debate has intensified preexisting feelings about the President,” says Republican pollster Whit Ayres. “Most people who like him do so with their eyes wide open. … They understand his strengths and his weaknesses and they prefer him to the alternatives as they see it. On the other hand, people who dislike him will be even more appalled because what they are seeing reinforces their existing views.”

The risk for Trump in that dynamic is that a majority of 51 to 55% of Americans have consistently said they disapprove of his performance, while only around 40 to 45% have usually said they approve. Even if Americans remain closely split on whether Congress should impeach and remove Trump from office, the scandal may be solidifying a division of attitudes that forces him to find a path to reelection without support from anything close to a majority of the electorate.

“At the very least it is deepening a lot of Trump’s problems,” says Democratic pollster Geoff Garin. “I think it is confirming for voters that Trump is a person lacking in integrity and ethical standards in a way that is particularly concerning to college-educated men. And I don’t think we are done with the impeachment story yet.”

Striking similarities in campaigns

Impeachment provided a critical backdrop to both the 1976 and 2000 elections, which followed the proceedings against Nixon and Clinton. Nixon resigned in August 1974 after the House Judiciary Committee approved impeachment articles against him; the Senate failed to remove Clinton in February 1999, after the Republican-controlled House of Representatives voted on a near-party-line basis to impeach him in December 1998.

The public reaction to these two confrontations utterly diverged. During the long gestation of the Watergate scandal, from early 1973 through Nixon’s resignation, support for his impeachment slowly grew and his job approval rating steadily eroded. In Gallup polling, a majority of Americans supported Nixon’s removal from office only in the final survey before his resignation; by then his approval rating had fallen to about 24%, though it remained around 50% among Republicans.

By comparison, public opinion remained remarkably stable through 1998 during the House GOP’s long march toward impeaching Clinton. Consistently in Gallup polling through that year, Americans opposed his impeachment and removal by about 2 to 1, and his approval rating remained well above 60%.

Trump met with ex-Clinton pollster Mark Penn to discuss impeachmentTrump met with ex-Clinton pollster Mark Penn to discuss impeachment

Yet, despite these differences in the immediate public reaction, the presidential campaigns that followed these two impeachment proceedings unfolded with some striking parallels. In each case, the party that drove the impeachment inquiry won the next presidential election. And in each instance, that party did so behind a nominee who did not dwell on the scandal that had prompted impeachment — but unmistakably presented himself as the antidote to it.

Jimmy Carter, the Democratic former Georgia governor, did not stress Watergate during the 1976 campaign, insisting the American people had heard enough about it. But Watergate still infused everything about his campaign. Carter centered his candidacy not on a big, ambitious policy agenda but on an overriding promise to unify the nation and restore to America “a government as good as its people.” That struck a powerful chord with voters exhausted by Watergate and allowed Carter, a one-term Georgia governor and former peanut farmer, to overcome doubts about his experience and narrowly defeat Gerald Ford, who had served as Nixon’s vice president and then succeeded him as President after Nixon’s resignation.

In 2000, George W. Bush likewise did not dwell on the affair with a White House intern that triggered Clinton’s impeachment. But it too infused Bush’s campaign. Like Carter, Bush presented himself as a unifying figure, “a uniter, not a divider,” in his phrase. And the Clinton scandal provided the backdrop for Bush’s core promise in 2000: to “restore honor and dignity to the Oval Office.” That messaging helped Bush squeeze out his narrow Electoral College victory over Al Gore, Clinton’s vice president, even while narrowly losing the popular vote.

As Tad Devine, one of Gore’s top strategists,
told me earlier this year, Bush skillfully found ways to tap the unease over Clinton’s behavior without directly embracing the unpopular impeachment itself.

“It became a very valuable tool even though Bush didn’t go around saying, ‘Impeachment, impeachment,’ ” Devine told me. “He took the bad stuff from impeachment and put it front and center [in the campaign]. What could Gore say? ‘I’ll restore honor too’?”

Trump’s situation is different

Public opinion over Trump’s possible impeachment has followed a middle course between these two examples. Support for impeachment jumped to around 50% after
Democrats formally announced their inquiry in September but has stagnated since then. Trump’s job approval ratings have remained almost unchanged: In a new
CNN survey conducted by SSRS and released this week, 50% of Americans supported Trump’s impeachment and removal, a number unchanged since October. His job approval rating stood at just 42%, with 54% disapproving. Through all of this year, his approval rating in the CNN poll has varied only between 39% and 43%.
In another important regard, Trump’s situation differs decisively from these precedents: Unlike Nixon and Clinton, Trump himself will be on the ballot in 2020 if the House impeaches him and the Senate does not vote to remove him from office. Under that scenario, Trump would become the first impeached president to appear on the next general election ballot. (The
only other president who faced this sanction was Andrew Johnson, Abraham Lincoln’s vice president, who was impeached but not removed by the Republican-led Congress in 1868; Johnson sought to run again that year as a Democrat but didn’t win the nomination.)
Trump’s presence on the ballot might change the dynamic from the Nixon and Clinton precedents in some respects — but likely won’t alter them in others. The biggest difference is that unlike Ford or Gore — who did not attempt to relitigate whether impeachment had been appropriate for the presidents they had served under — Trump will likely try to mobilize more turnout from his core backers by insisting he was unfairly persecuted by an “unholy alliance” of Democrats, the media and the deep state,
as he put it during a recent rally.

Ayres, the Republican pollster, says Trump’s unbending response to impeachment underlines the pugnacious take-no-prisoners posture that thrills his core supporters.

“Supporters take away he’s a fighter, that he’s never backs down, that he never gives in to the carping critics and that he will stand his ground no matter what the situation and hold his head high in the face of unrelenting criticism,” he said.

But Ayres, like a wide array of Democratic strategists, agrees the revelations in the Ukraine investigation are serving just as powerfully to reinforce the doubts Trump faces among those skeptical of him.

“It is another strike against him,” says Josh Schwerin, senior strategist and communications director for Priorities USA, a leading Democratic Super PAC. “It reinforces the negative feelings they have about his actions and the way he carries himself.”

Trump as lesser of two evils?

That dynamic is evident in recent poll results showing that overwhelming majorities of voters who disapprove of Trump’s overall job performance view his actions in Ukraine as deeply troubling.

In one recent
Quinnipiac University national poll among voters who disapprove of Trump’s job performance, 94% said he has abused the power of his office and 93% said he considers himself above the law, according to figures provided by the pollsters. Another
Quinnipiac Poll found that 94% of those who disapprove of Trump’s job performance say he was pursuing his own interests, and not the nation’s, in Ukraine.

In the new CNN survey, 90% of those who disapprove of Trump overall say that in his dealings with Ukraine he abused his presidential power to gain political advantage. Likewise, in the latest ABC/Washington Post survey, 88% of disapprovers said he did something wrong in his dealings with Ukraine, according to figures provided by the Post. Fully 89% of those who disapproved of Trump in the CNN survey considered his behavior so egregious that they endorsed the unprecedented step of removing him from office.

Whether or not most Americans support removing Trump from office before his term, strategists in both parties generally agree that such judgments could complicate a critical part of the GOP plan for 2020. One of the Trump campaign’s hopes is that it can convince some voters who now say they disapprove of him to vote for him nonetheless by making the Democratic nominee more unacceptable to them. To the extent the Ukraine investigation deepens the concerns of those disapproving voters, convincing them to accept Trump as the lesser of two evils obviously becomes more difficult. Schwerin says the key issue isn’t whether voters who disapprove of Trump believe he should be removed now, but whether they can accept more of the behavior unearthed in the investigation for another four years.

Here are the 18 Democrats who are running for presidentHere are the 18 Democrats who are running for president

One of the most intriguing questions for 2020 is whether these dynamics will create any fissures among the different factions in the Republican coalition.

In polling, all elements of the Republican coalition have unified against the Democratic-led impeachment (with the exception of the
recent ABC/Washington Post poll that found that just over one-sixth of Republicans believe Trump should be removed.) But polling hints that after the threat of Trump’s removal is gone –either because the House fails to impeach or the Senate refuses to convict –Republicans may differ more over the underlying behavior that the impeachment inquiry has revealed.
The recent annual national
American Values Survey by the nonpartisan Public Religion Research Institute divided Republicans between the roughly 45% who said they receive their information mostly from Fox News Channel and the 55% who said they rely mostly on other sources. On impeachment these two Republican groups differed only modestly, with the idea generating opposition from 98% of the Fox watchers and 90% of the others.

But on other relevant measures, the groups did split more. While 71% of the Fox watchers said they strongly approved of Trump’s performance in office, only 39% of the non-Fox watchers agreed; roughly one-fifth of the latter group said they disapproved of him. One-third of those who relied on other sources said Trump has damaged the dignity of the presidency — compared with just 1 in 11 of the Fox watchers). In the CNN survey, almost 1 in 6 Republicans and independents who lean toward the party said Trump abused his powers in Ukraine.

Will weariness grow into opposition?

Stanley B. Greenberg, the veteran Democratic pollster, sees openings for Democrats in those cracks. In a recent round of focus groups around the country, he said he found that some Republicans, even if they support Trump’s policy goals, are growing exhausted by the relentless controversy and division surrounding him. The Ukraine scandal and impeachment fight, Greenberg believes, could crystallize those concerns. Greenberg says “probably the most important impact” of the ongoing impeachment struggle is that “it only reinforces that we’ll have continued polarization and divisiveness” if Trump is reelected. “It doesn’t create hope” for something different, Greenberg says.

Given the underlying stability in public opinion about Trump, it appears unlikely that Democrats can amass a big majority to support his impeachment (absent perhaps some bombshell revelation from one of his inner circle who has so far refused to testify). And another few months with the impeachment debate dominating national news coverage — first in the House and then possibly in the Senate — will allow Republicans to raise charges of corruption in Ukraine against former Vice President Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden, even though those allegations have been widely discredited by the media and in the House testimony from current and former Trump administration officials. Weeks more of impeachment debate in the House and an impeachment trial in the Senate could also help Trump energize his base of supporters for 2020.

Yang says impeachment may not help the Democrats in 2020Yang says impeachment may not help the Democrats in 2020

But more attention to Trump’s behavior in Ukraine may also provide a stronger opportunity for the next Democratic nominee to reprise the core strategy of the winning candidates after the past two impeachments. Just as Carter in 1976 promised honesty and Bush in 2000 pledged decency, the next Democratic nominee may promise a return to normalcy after a Trump term defined by unending volatility, confrontation and collisions with legal boundaries.

Biden previewed such arguments last weekend in Iowa; in a distant echo of Bush in 2000,
he declared that one of the first responsibilities for the next president will be to “restore dignity to the White House.”

However much impeachment allows Trump to mobilize his base, the confrontation may strike many other voters as an uncomfortable preview of a second Trump term that extends — and likely even enlarges — the unstinting controversies of his first.

“There are a lot of negatives on Trump,” says John Anzalone, a Democratic pollster advising Biden’s campaign. “But at the end of the day I think people are so exhausted by him and they so want their lives back that that will be a really big psychological driving factor.”

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Over 60 cars pile up in Spokane crash after snowstorm

The pileup involving more than 60 vehicles forced authorities to shut down Interstate 90 on Tuesday, the Washington Department of Transportation said.

“There were multiple collisions west of Spokane due to an isolated snow storm that came through the area,” Beth Bousley, a WDOT spokeswoman said.

The six wounded had injuries that were not life-threatening, said Orlando Sandoval, deputy fire chief of operations for the Spokane County Fire District 10.

All lanes of I-90 were blocked in both directions for several hours, then one lane in each direction reopened, said Jeff Sevigney, a trooper with the Washington State Patrol District 4.

Forecasters say a brief snow storm hit the Spokane area on Tuesday afternoon.Forecasters say a brief snow storm hit the Spokane area on Tuesday afternoon.

The crash was so massive that at one point, workers ran out of tow trucks to remove the vehicles, Sevigney said. He added that a bus from Spokane has been taking stranded motorists to a nearby warming center.

More than half an inch of snow fell within 25 minutes, causing very slick conditions Tuesday in parts of Spokane, the National Weather Service office in Spokane said.

A high wind warning remains in effect from 4 a.m. PT Wednesday to midnight Wednesday night for eastern Washington, the weather service said.

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Trump has a big blessing to count this Thanksgiving

Donald Trump has one big blessing to count this Thanksgiving, despite the scandals ricocheting around his White House. The US economy’s almost supernatural resilience is keeping him in the game with the 2020 election looming.

A new
CNN/SSRS poll finds that 55% of voters approve of the President’s handling of the economy. And it’s not surprising. Unemployment is near record lows. And stocks, on which many Americans rely for their pensions, are roaring.

A general rule of US politics is that a strong economy all but guarantees reelection for a first-term President. And while Trump hasn’t consistently produced the 4% growth rates he promised, a projected expansion of around 2% for 2019 isn’t bad — in fact, it’s better than most US competitors. But 2020 might be a wild card.

Trump takes a victory lap every time the Dow leaps into new territory, but his approval ratings aren’t keeping up the way they should. The CNN poll pegged him at just 42% — perilous territory for a President seeking a second term. While the impeachment drama has not seemed to damage his viability, Trump has never enjoyed majority approval, largely because he alienates so many voters with his scorched earth approach.

CNN's Meanwhile in AmericaCNN's Meanwhile in America

Dark clouds are also looming. Several US regional Federal Reserve banks predict growth may dip below 1% in the fourth quarter. Experts warn Trump’s trade war with China is also a drag — meaning he may be tempted by a deal that he can bill as a big win, even if it’s fairly modest. And manufacturing, a vital economic driver in Midwestern states that Trump must win, is beginning to hurt.

If the economy stays strong, it can be a launchpad for a narrow Trump election victory. If it dips, he could be in trouble. If there’s a recession, he’s likely toast.

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November 26 Trump impeachment inquiry news – CNNPolitics

Right after Mark Sandy, an official at the Office of Management and Budget, learned that President Trump froze US aid to Ukraine, he told his boss that the move might have violated a federal law about congressional appropriations and said OMB lawyers should review the matter.

Sandy learned about the holdup on July 19, after returning from a vacation. He was told about it by his boss, Michael Duffey, a Trump political appointee at OMB. 

“So, on that day, I emphasized that that would noise a number of questions that we would need to address,” Sandy said. “And so I advised that we would want to consult with our Office of the General Counsel on those questions first.”

Sandy, who is not an attorney, said he raised the legal concerns because “these moneys are what we call one-year funds, which means that their period of availability was expiring on September 30th, and consistent with a layman’s understanding of the Impoundment Control Act, we need to ensure that agencies are able to obligate funds before they expire.” 

The Impoundment Control Act, a federal law passed in the 1970s, prohibits a sitting US president from unilaterally withholding funds that were appropriated by Congress. Some liberal-minded scholars have opined that Trump broke the law when he froze $390 million in military aid for Ukraine because it was appropriated by lawmakers.  

On July 30, political appointee Michael Duffey took over responsibility for the Ukraine money. (Up until that point, Sandy had been signing the documents about the freeze. After that, until the aid was lifted in September, Duffey signed the papers.)  

Sandy learned about this change in a conversation with Duffey, who told him “that there was interest among the leadership in tracking the uses of moneys closely.” Duffey also said he “had an interest in being more involved in daily operations… he regarded this responsibility as a way for him to learn about more specific accounts within his area.”

Sandy raised concerns about this move — he said because it would take up so much of Duffey’s time, if he were to assume responsibility for these funds and others. He also said that it was not the most efficient way to learn about how OMB formally doles out federal funding.