Month: November 2020

The U.S. is set to officially withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement on Wednesday, three years after President Donald Trump announced his intent to remove the country from participating in the global forum to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The historic accord seeks to limit global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius, the value that climate scientists have determined will have disastrous consequences if exceeded. Trump has assailed the agreement as economically detrimental and claimed it could cost the country 2.5 million jobs by 2025. He also said it gave other major emitters, such as China, a free pass.

While a number of environmental policy experts believe the move was a step back from what was previously seen as an era of environmental responsibility during the Obama administration, several who spoke to ABC News on the issue agreed that the U.S. has the ability to regain a title as a world leader in climate action in the coming years.

The U.S. lost its standing as a climate leader under Trump: Experts

Since 2017, Trump has walked back dozens of environmental protections, including several on drilling and emissions. The Obama administration, on the other hand, influenced other major emitters around the world to take action and former Vice President Joe Biden has pledged to pursue even more aggressive environmental goals if he is elected president.

Biden has vowed to re-enter the Paris accord if elected, a move that could take less than six months, Varun Sivaram, senior research scholar at Columbia University’s SIPA Center on Global Energy Policy, told ABC News.

“Over the last four years, the Trump administration has sharply diminished the United States’ standing in the world,” in terms of environmental policy, Sivaram said.

“The United States is already viewed around the world by other countries, our allies and adversaries alike, as kind of global scofflaw, as a country that can’t be counted on to take its alliances seriously,” he added. “And we’ve done it time and time again in the last four years, in other areas of foreign relations and especially in the area of climate.”

During Trump’s first three years in office, the communique for the G20 summit did not include any mention of climate change, and the U.S. has not even come close to meeting its goal set at the 2015 Paris summit to reduce emissions by 26% to 28% by 2025, according to the experts.

The U.S. also has not kept its commitment to double funding for innovation and clean energy research development by 2021, experts said.

A projection by the Energy Information Administration found that Trump is on track to preside over one of America’s sharpest drops in fossil fuel emissions — 10% for 2020. However, that decrease, which the EIA says is due to the COVID-19 pandemic, represents the largest drop since the 2008 recession, which saw a 7.3% decline.

The environment is on the ballot, experts say

When voters cast their ballots on Election Day, many will be making the decision on how the country will move forward on climate action, experts said.

Trump’s administration has gone after the strict emissions regulations in California, for instance, and experts expect him to continue denying the science behind topics such as climate change, natural disasters and even the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as a gravitate toward an expansion of oil and gas drilling.

Frances Moore, assistant professor in the department of environmental science and policy at the University of California, Davis, said she believes that if Trump is re-elected, it would cause Paris Agreement to experience a “slow, anemic decline.”

“It’s unlikely, I think, that the Paris Agreement forum could survive as a serious international agreement that’s really motivating countries to do things that they otherwise wouldn’t be doing,” if Trump were to remain president, she said.

Biden has outlined his commitment to protect the environment with a proposed a $5 trillion plan. His plan to address the climate emergency would aspire to a 100% clean energy economy and reaching net-zero emissions no later than 2050.

“The most important aspect” for federal climate action would be for the U.S. to resume international leadership, Philip Duffy, climate scientist and president and executive director of the Woodwell Climate Research Center, told ABC News.

“There’s a potential that that forum could really be re-invigorated by a Biden administration,” Moore said. “And in particular, if a Biden administration were to kind of re-energize the U.S. domestic climate policy, that in turn will have a knock-on effect in the international arena.”

While Biden’s climate plan has been recognized as the most ambitious the U.S. has ever proposed, it still may not hit the mark, according to some critics.

His goal to zero-out electricity emissions by 2035, while aggressive, likely won’t do enough to reduce greenhouse gases in the time that’s needed, wrote The Week correspondent Ryan Cooper, and preventing the rest of the developing world, such as India, from following in China’s emission-heavy footsteps would require a robust international investment fund, according to an analysis by Jacob Fawcett in the People’s Policy Project.

Republicans, on the other hand, have criticized Biden’s climate plan as being too expensive, with Vice President Mike Pence describing it as “a $2 trillion version of the Green New Deal” during his debate with Sen. Kamala Harris last month.

The US didn’t need to leave the agreement in the first place

Trump said he withdrew from the Paris Agreement because it imposed an unfair burden on the U.S. and has done little to slow down emissions from other countries.

However, if the U.S. found the goals it set for itself in 2015 to be too ambitious, it could have simply changed them, rather than withdraw from the Paris accord altogether, according to the rules of the agreement.

The 195 countries that signed on to the accord made a voluntary and unilateral pledge about what they think thought they could accomplish, the experts said. This included developing countries that had refused to make any sort of commitment in the past as well as some developed nations.

The agreement also included a framework to assess progress every five years. This would enable governments to alter their commitments, known as nationally determined contributions, or NDCs, ideally by making them more ambitious as technology costs went down, but to also scale them back without penalty, if necessary.

“It’s not a one-size-fits-all, top-down commitment, where, for example, everybody would reduce greenhouse gas emissions by X percent,” Duffy said.

Currently, the collective NDCs in the Paris Agreement still don’t add up to 2 degrees Celsius, according to the experts. Countries will next have the opportunity to increase their commitments from the Paris Agreement at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, Scotland, in November 2021.

The biggest emitters in the world should take the lead, experts say

Experts say that the U.S., which has the second-largest amount of greenhouse gas emissions in the world now and has been since the Paris Agreement, and other leading emitters should lead the way to reducing emissions.

“It’s really difficult to imagine other kind of countries stepping up in terms of ambition and leadership to solve the climate crisis when the U.S. is kind of walking away from this agreement,” Moore said.

In addition, Sivaram believes that the U.S. and other Western countries bear a “great historical responsibility” to the world for the Industrial Revolution, which spurred the trend of global warming.

“We’re this wealthy country with a large technological and great scientific enterprise,” Moore said. “These are things that we can draw on to really lead the way on crafting this new low carbon economy.”

While U.S. does not bear full responsibility for the climate problem, it can play a central role in helping to mitigate it.

During Obama’s presidency, for instance, the U.S. would help to lead negotiations during the annual United Nations Conference of the Parties meetings for ambitious paths going forward, but this stopped once Trump went into office, he added.

Obama also assisted in what Sivaram described as a “critical breakthrough” at the 2009 Copenhagen summit that paved the way for a joint commitment by the U.S. and China to make a joint announcement on their intent take solid action on climate change in 2014.

Those actions eventually led to the creation of the Paris Agreement, Sivaram said.

“So, when the leading emitters sets ambitious goals, that raises the bar for everybody else,” Duffy said.

While Obama is credited for leading the charge into the agreement, some have criticized him for failing to implement lasting change in the climate fight. Climate attorney David Bookbinder wrote in Vox in 2017 that the Obama’s climate action policies didn’t start until he was re-elected, largely because he was fearful of the political consequences that could follow.

Marianne Lavelle, politics reporter for Inside Climate News, agreed, writing in 2016 that all of Obama’s achievements in climate change happened during his second term, describing his first term as “lost territory.”

The year he went into office, Trump announced his intention to withdraw from the agreement, describing the pledge that the U.S. made as a “massive redistribution of United States wealth,” that would “undermine our economy, hamstring our workers, weaken our sovereignty [and] impose unacceptable legal risk.”

He added that he would be open to re-joining the accord after renegotiating a “deal that’s fair.”

Why it pays for the U.S. to focus on climate change

The economic windfall that could result from the U.S. remaining in the Paris Agreement and doing the work to accomplish its goals could be vast, according to the experts.

The U.S. could potentially triple its investment in clean energy innovation and spur a competitive race to the top around the world, therefore driving down the cost of clean energy technologies as well as improving their performance, Sivaram said.

A lot of the solutions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions already exist, but it’s currently too expensive to transition to clean energy as quickly as needed, the experts said,

Currently, 40 to 46 of the critical technologies for decarbonizing or reducing emissions to net zero are not on track, Sivaram said. While some, like solar and wind power have gotten dramatically cheaper, others, such as clean fuels for industries or long-distance transportation, the use of hydrogen and the use of digital technologies are still too expensive to implement in an efficient manner.

The book “Energizing America,” which Sivaram co-wrote, forecasts that if the U.S. federal government launches a national energy innovation mission and triples its investment in clean energy innovation to $25 billion by 2025, it will create and sustain 1 million or more good, long-term jobs in some of these advanced energy industries.

The federal government is losing out financially by not putting climate action at the forefront of its agenda, Duffy said.

“I believe by not being more ambitious is we’re losing out on the opportunities to develop the solutions and sell them to the rest of the world,” he said.

What’s next for international efforts to reduce climate change?

The rest of the world is continuing to set ambitious goals to mitigate the rate of global warming without the U.S being on board.

Last month, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced the country’s new target of economy-wide carbon neutrality by 2060. China, which is the world’s largest emitter with 28% of global greenhouse gases, set its initial goal in the Paris Agreement for its emissions to peak by 2030.

“That is an astonishing goal,” Sivaram said. “If China can pull that off it’ll be the most Herculean feat I think we’ve ever seen in the world.”

China is also investing more money into low-carbon energy than any other country, Duffy said.

India, which experts say could become the world’s number one emitter of carbon dioxide later this century, is exceeding the Paris Agreement targets that it set and could set more ambitious targets in the run-up to the next major climate conference in 2021.

The European Union has made an ambitious set of commitments, which includes reducing their emissions by more than half by 2030 and become climate neutral by 2050, Sivaram said.

In order to meet the goals of the accord, countries are going to have to be much more ambitious, and the global clean energy transition away from fossil fuels and toward cleaner energy sources, such as renewable energy, will have to be much swifter.

“So, around the world, the major emitters, the major economies are taking their own action on climate change, and they don’t particularly care whether or not the United States is in or out, Sivaram said.

Local governments in the U.S. have stepped up to the climate fight in the absence of federal policy in the U.S., such as strict emissions regulations put in place in California, as well as a pledge by California, New York and Michigan to become carbon neutral by 2050.

These are moves that will likely reflect on the country as a whole in the eyes of the world, Moore said.

The type of distraction is still under investigation.

South Dakota Attorney General Jason Ravnsborg was “distracted” when he fatally struck a pedestrian on a highway in September, an investigation of the crash has found.

On Sept. 12, Ravnsborg was driving west on U.S. Highway 14, about a mile west of Highmore, South Dakota, when he hit and killed the 55-year-old victim, Joseph Boever.

Ravnsborg, 44, initially thought he hit a deer, he told authorities, but discovered Boever’s body when he returned to the scene the next day. He previously disclosed that he called 911 and searched a ditch with police using a cell phone flashlight looking for the deer at around 10:30 p.m. on Sept. 12.

On Monday, authorities released the crash report and a photo of Ravnsborg’s 2011 Ford Taurus three days after the investigation, after it was processed for evidence.

The investigation determined that Ravnsborg was distracted when he struck Boever, South Dakota Department of Public Safety Secretary Craig Price told reporters during a press conference Monday.

Boever was carrying a light while walking on the shoulder of Highway 14, which measures about 10.5 feet, when he was struck, Price said, but would not give details on the type of light Boever had or the specific location on where his body was found. It is unclear in which direction he was walking, Price said.

The initial cause of death was listed as traumatic injuries — both internal and external.

Ravnsborg was alone in his car at the time, but the exact time of the crash has not yet been determined, Price said, adding that when the Hyde County sheriff responded to the scene, he did not detail his time of arrival. The speed limit in the location of the crash is 65 mph, but Price did not disclose how fast Raynsborg was traveling.

The “type or types of distraction” that caused Ravnsborg to hit Boever are still under investigation, Price said. When asked by a reporter how authorities can be confident Ravnsborg was distracted when they don’t know what the distraction was, Price replied that it was “detailed investigative work,” adding that “the specifics behind that would be inappropriate to release at this time.”

Ravnsborg was not placed under administrative leave and continued to work after the crash, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem said last month.

On Monday, when asked by a reporter whether she would ask Ravnsborg for a resignation, Noem replied, “I’m going to refrain from expressing my personal opinions until the investigation is totally complete” and wait to see whether the state’s attorney makes a decision on whether to file charges.

The final autopsy report and other forensic examinations are still pending, Price said.

Tim Bormann, Ravnsborg’s chief of staff, told ABC News last month that the attorney general was driving home from a dinner party hosted by the county’s Republican Party at Rooster’s Bar & Grill in Redfield, South Dakota, roughly 68 miles from the site of the accident.

Bormann said he does not believe Ravnsborg drank at the event, saying “it has been his policy” to not drink at “political events of this sort.”

The attorney general’s office previously said Ravnsborg stayed on the scene after making the 911 call.

Ravnsborg, who was elected in 2018, has a string of previous driving violations, according to state records. He pleaded guilty to speeding six times between 2014 and 2018 and paid fines between $19 and $79, according to state records.

ABC News’ Karma Allen, Joshua Hoyos and Ivan Pereira contributed to this report.

With just one day until Election Day, the question of when Americans will know the results of the 2020 election is top of mind, as President Trump insists results must be in on Tuesday night.

But Ohio’s Republican Secretary of State Frank LaRose stressed that “election night results are never final” on the ABC News “Powerhouse Politics” podcast.

“This idea that election night is sort of this grand reality TV show where everybody gets to go to bed on election night knowing who won and who lost is just a flawed construct that’s not the way it works,” LaRose said during an interview Monday with podcast co-hosts ABC News Chief White House Correspondent Jonathan Karl and Political Director Rick Klein.

Trump has repeatedly claimed that the winner of the election must be known on election night, saying during a rally in Iowa Sunday, “We should know the result of the election on November 3rd, the evening of November 3rd. That’s the way it’s been and that’s the way it should be.”

While Americans have become accustomed to knowing the winner on election night, LaRose said that this year in particular, due to the influx in absentee ballots, the ability to “make a pretty safe assumption about who’s going to win or who’s going to lose” may not be possible this year, not just in Ohio, but across the country.

He added, “The real deadline that we’re focused on is getting that certification done of the final statewide results by the 28th of November, and then seating our electoral college on the 14th of December … because that’s that’s the way the process plays out.”

LaRose touted Ohio’s system for processing absentee ballots ahead of the big day, noting that usually the ‘very first’ ballots counted after polls close are the absentee and in person early votes.

“Ohio has a really good system compared to other states. If you look at some of our neighboring states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, even up in Wisconsin, in those states and others they can’t even begin processing absentee ballots, they can’t cut the envelopes open until Election Day. In Ohio, we’ve already been doing that for four weeks,” he said.

In Michigan, clerks in municipalities with populations of at least 25,000 people were granted some relief for this, allowed to start the processing for a 10-hour period Monday, but overall, the three “Blue Wall” states that President Donald Trump won in 2016 are the most disadvantage among the battleground states this cycle when it comes to processing mail ballots quickly.

LaRose said that county election officials have been able to open returned mail ballots and check voters’ registration and signatures, which also gives officials more time to contact voters and give them an opportunity to cure their ballots if there is an issue.

“On election night, the very first ballots counted in Ohio are almost always the absentee and early votes … so right at 7:30 when the polls close, the boards of elections can begin the tabulation process,” he said.

LaRose told podcast co-hosts Karl and Klein that when election results start coming at 8 p.m. or 8:15 p.m., it’s largely going to be these votes, and then later in the night, more of the Election Day vote will come in.

The secretary said this year, his office will be highlighting the number of outstanding absentee ballots at the top of their election night reporting website. This key figure could help with calling races, as absentee ballots aren’t due until Nov. 13 under Ohio state law, as long as they are postmarked by Monday, but officials will know for certain how many potential ballots could still be returned.

LaRose predicted strong turnout, and said this election could be the first time the state has 6 million voters participate in an election.

“We’ve seen fully a tripling in the previous numbers for early voting and a doubling in the number of absentee votes so at this point right now… we’ve seen over 3.1 million absentee ballot applications received over 2.1 million ballots cast and again those numbers are a few days old,” the secretary said. “I think that it’s entirely possible that by the time the polls open at 6:30 tomorrow morning that more than half the ballots will have been already cast in Ohio.”

In 2016, 5.6 million voters, or 71% of registered voters, turned out in Ohio, which LaRose said was “very high turnout.”

Indirectly countering the president’s oft-repeated talking points, LaRose said that while there were some issues with slow third-party vendors, which he said was “disappointing” and “shouldn’t have happened,” he’s seen “nothing as far as fraudulent activity” with absentee ballots.

“As it relates to any kind of fraud related to absentee voting, that’s exceedingly rare. It happens, you know, occasionally and when it does happen we take it seriously,” the secretary said, noting that people have been referred for prosecution in the past.

As coronavirus cases are increasing again across the county, and the total daily diagnoses setting new records, LaRose talked about the safety precautions in place and what would happen if a voter shows up to the polls without a mask.

He said his office has “fielded massive quantities of personal protective equipment,” including masks, sanitizer, disinfecting wipes and face shields. There will be masks available to give to voters at every polling place.

If a voter shows up to vote Tuesday without a mask, the person will be offered a mask. If he or she refuses to wear the mask, they will be given the option to vote curbside, where a bipartisan team of sworn election officials will bring a ballot for them to fill out, and then after the voter is done, that ballot gets put into an envelope and take it into the polling place to be scanned.

But if the voter refuses to do both of these things, they cannot be denied their right to vote, so the elections officials will do their best to maintain social distancing, and create “ample space” for the maskless voter to cast their vote. The machine will be wiped down following that.

LaRose said what they hope to avoid escalating the situation.

“Folks that are coming to intentionally make a scene by voting without a mask or whatever else, we don’t want to give them the attention they’re looking for. It’s kind of a nothing to see here we’re gonna get you voted and get you out the door, in a safe and distance way,” he said.

He added, “Really the responsible thing to do is to wear your mask or to take the one that we offer.”

After four decades, early November still marks a moment of tension between Iran and the United States.

The U.S. Election Day, which might have a dramatic impact on the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic, coincides with the anniversary of the hostage crisis in Iran that has become a diplomatic deadlock between the two countries.

The hostage crisis took place when Iranian revolutionary students took over the American embassy in November of 1979 and held 52 American diplomats and citizens hostage for 444 days.

The anniversary of the hostage crisis has constantly been marked in Iran with demonstrations, the “Death to America” slogan and people setting fire to American flags. However, this year, these ceremonies are to be restrained, Iranian officials said.

Since Iran is going through its most severe surge of COVID-19 with over 35,000 lives lost by the end of October, health officials warned against any gatherings.

Nonetheless, the conservative office in charge of commemorating the event said that the ceremony will be held in different cities.

The ceremony is to be held in Tehran and across the country with “limited gatherings” by observing “preventive protocols,” Nosratollah Seifi, deputy head of the Islamic development coordination council, said in a press conference, the Islamic Republic News Agency reported Tuesday.

But reformist figures are worried the coverage of the hostage crisis anniversary demonstrations will send a negative political message to the U.S. amid an early worrying time.

“It is the message that extremists like to send to America, ‘Iran is an anti-U.S. country, regardless of who wins the election, Trump or Biden,'” Mostafa Tajzadeh, a reformist Iranian politician, told ABC News.

Tajzadeh believes that the common interests between Tehran and Washington are more than their conflicts.

“It is the reason why negotiation — with whoever has the office either in Iran or in the U.S. — is a more feasible solution for the two countries than catastrophic options like a military approach,” he said.

Still, some people affiliated to conservative groups and to the opposition figures of the Islamic Republic prefer the reelection of President Donald Trump.

“Pro-system conservatives prefer Trump, because this result will help them keep up the anti-negotiation stance they have always taken,” Tajzadeh explained.

He believes that Trump’s policies toward Tehran have empowered extremists, caused economic harm and damaged reformist political powers.

Iran’s economy has worsened since Trump’s administration pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal known as the JCPOA in May 2018.

The deal was aimed to ease economic sanctions on Iran in return for Tehran’s commitment to restrain its nuclear programs.

But, the U.S.’ withdrawal from the deal reinstated former sanctions and severely affected Tehran’s ailing economy, which was already suffering from endemic corruption and domestic mismanagement in the country.

According to Iran’s Statistic Center, the inflation rate hit over 40% in October compared to last year. The value of the national currency, rial, is also cut to one tenth compared to when Trump took office.

Unemployment and stagnation have also worsened during the pandemic.

Considering the economic solution and setting a reasonable ground by defusing the heightened tensions between the two countries could facilitate potential negotiations between Iran and America. Tajzadeh finds this reachable if Joe Biden wins the election.

Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic Ayatollah Ali Khamenei clearly said that Iran has no intention of negotiating with the Trump administration. But, he did not reject the possibility of negotiation if Biden wins.

“Why should we negotiate? The JCPOA was a clear example. This is while I was very strict about it… So, it is impossible to negotiate with this government,” Ayatollah Khamenei said in a speech after Trump’s withdrawal of the nuclear deal according to his official website.

“We are destined to negotiate,” Tajzadeh said. “The critical situation of the region and the depressed economy leaves no choice to both parties but to negotiate, no matter if the anniversary of the hostage crisis is held, or who wins the election,” he added.

Facing polls showing a competitive race in as many as a dozen different states, Trump campaign senior adviser Jason Miller offered an optimistic outlook on the presidential contest Sunday, predicting that a group of battleground states in the southern U.S. that President Donald Trump needs to secure re-election would all remain red.

“We feel very good. We think that President Trump is going to hold all the Sunbelt states that he won previously,” Jason Miller said on ABC’s “This Week,” referring, chiefly, to Arizona, Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, which represent a total of 71 electoral votes.

As a result of such a potential sweep, Miller told Chief Anchor George Stephanopoulos that Democratic nominee Joe Biden would have to win four other competitive states — Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — combined with the results of the many states considered safe, to prevent the president from reaching the 270 electoral votes needed to win.

The comments came despite public polling that shows Trump trailing Biden in several of those key battleground states. ABC News partner FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages show Biden holding advantages in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, and maintaining nearly nine-point leads in Michigan and Wisconsin — two of the states Trump flipped on his way to defeating Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016.

On “This Week,” Miller also referred to the potential for a “red mirage” — the appearance of a Trump lead on Tuesday evening due to a quicker count of in-person Election Day votes. With Democrats more likely to cast ballots by mail, Biden supporters are concerned the president will preemptively declare victory.

“More than 92 million Americans have already voted. That’s well over half of the number that voted in 2016,” Stephanopoulos noted. “So given all that, what is your clearest path to 270 right now?”

“If you speak with many smart Democrats, they believe that President Trump will be ahead on election night, probably getting 280 electoral (votes) somewhere in that range, and then they’re going to try to steal it back after the election,” Miller said Sunday morning, misleadingly suggesting that early leads would guarantee Trump electoral votes and that all ballots arriving after Election Day are invalid.

Though many states’ laws allow for the tabulation of votes prior to Election Day, 16 require the count to wait until Tuesday and 17 more prevent their tabulation until polls close. A number of states, including North Carolina and Pennsylvania, provide several days for ballots postmarked by Tuesday to reach county clerk and election offices, and multiple Pennsylvania counties announced they will not begin to calculate their absentee results until Wednesday.

“We believe that we will be over 290 electoral votes on election night, so no matter what they tried to do, what kind of hijinks or lawsuits or whatever kind of nonsense they try to pull off, we’re still going to have enough electoral votes to get President Trump re-elected,” Miller continued, again denigrating the processes by which some may attempt to confirm their legal votes.

With two days to go until Election Day, Trump is maintaining a busy schedule. He is slated to attend 10 rallies in seven different states on Sunday and Monday and could add more travel on Tuesday before the returns are reported.

In elaborating upon his optimism, Miller pointed to several different demographic groups with whom he believes Trump will out-perform his numbers from four years ago.

“President Trump is going to get well over 10% of the Black vote. I think he’ll get over 20% of African American men. President Trump will probably get 40% of the Latino vote,” he said. “The entire demographic shift within these parties — it’s a different world now, George, and that’s why we’re trying to turn out our supporters. We feel good about it.”

According to national exit polls, Trump garnered the support of 8% of Black voters, 13% of Black men, and 28% of Latino voters in 2016.

Miller further identified Nevada and Minnesota as a pair of Clinton-won states Trump could flip this year to make up for any potential disappointments in the Sunbelt region.

During the interview, Stephanopoulos additionally pressed Miller on Trump’s unsubstantiated claims at recent campaign events that health care providers are misreporting COVID-19 death counts to receive additional funding.

“You know, our doctors get more money if somebody dies from COVID. You know that, right?” the president said at a rally in Michigan on Friday. “I mean, our doctors are very smart people … so what they do is they say ‘I’m sorry, but you know, everybody dies of COVID.'”

“Why does the president repeatedly attack doctors working on the frontlines saying they’re inflating COVID numbers?” Stephanopoulos asked Miller.

“I don’t think he was attacking anybody at all,” Miller said. “I think there have been a number of reports that have raised issues out there regarding billing and things like that.”

While it is true that the government provides hospitals with additional funds to treat coronavirus patients, including a 20% increase for Medicare recipients created through relief legislation earlier this year, that money is pegged to cases rather than deaths. There is additionally no evidence that the death toll is being inflated.

As for Trump’s repeated claims that the U.S. is “rounding the corner” on the pandemic — even, as Stephanopoulos noted, diagnoses continue to surge and a subsequent rise in hospitalizations and deaths has proven the case increase is not solely a product of more widespread testing — Miller cited progress on a vaccine as rationale.

“We’re right there on the cusp of having this vaccine finalized and ready for distribution,” he said Sunday, nearly two months after the president expressed optimism about a vaccine’s delivery “maybe even before Nov. 1st.”

“We will have it done and start distributing it by the end of the year,” Miller added.

Eta is the 28th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season.

Tropical Storm Eta formed overnight, strengthened throughout Sunday and is now moving toward Nicaragua, according to the latest forecast Sunday evening.

The storm’s center is about 200 miles east of the Nicaraguan coast. It is generating sustained winds of up to 70 mph, forecasters said, and is moving west at 13 mph.

Eta will continue to strengthen over the next 36 hours and will likely reach hurricane strength Sunday night.

Hurricane warnings have been issued for parts of Honduras and Nicaragua.

Eta is the 28th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season meaning that 2020 has tied 2005 for the most named storms in a single hurricane season.

Scientists have long warned that increasing ocean temperatures and other effects of climate change have caused the rise of dangerous storms.

The current forecast track has Eta reaching Nicaragua and Southern Honduras by Tuesday evening as a strong Category 2 hurricane.

It will weaken quickly after landfall, but also slow down, which could lead to extreme rainfall. Parts of Nicaragua and Honduras can expect one or two feet of rain. Other parts of the countries could see totals of up to 30 inches of rain, which could result in mudslides, landslides and life-threatening flash flooding.

In the second half of the week, Eta is expected to spread its path and grow in intensity.

Eric Blake, the senior hurricane Scientist at the National Hurricane Center, said Eta has the potential to cause the worst rainfall threat in Nicaragua and Honduras since Hurricane Mitch — which caused disaster in 1998 and resulted in 11,000 fatalities.

Experts do not expect Eta to be as strong as Hurricane Mitch, but 30 inches of rain could cause a lot of damage in this Central America due to terrain and economic factors.

The spaghetti forecast model plots show the path’s uncertainty and a number of these different model runs are showing some type of northward turn later this week.

The American GFS model, which has been doing quite well with tropical cyclones this year, is also showing a northward turn.

It’s too early to say whether or not Eta could affect the United States, but the risk of it moving towards the country later this week and into early next week continues to increase gradually.

Meanwhile, an Alberta clipper is moving just north of the Great Lakes this morning.

Behind it, cold air is rushing into the upper Midwest with wind chills in the teens from Fargo to Green Bay.

According to current weather data, gusts of up to 50 mph could hit parts of the upper Midwest Sunday. This could down trees and power lines in some spots and bring cold weather to the area.

By Sunday night, the clipper will impact parts of the Northeast with some rain for the I-95 corridor and a sharp drop in temperature.

Wind chills into parts of the Appalachians and eastern Ohio will be dropping into the 20s and possibly teens by the night.

Additionally, this cold air moving over the relatively warm Great Lakes will bring some lake effect snow to the interior northeast.

Snowfall accumulations over 3 inches could affect some of the snow-prone spots around the Great Lakes, and snow could reach parts of interior New York and Pennsylvania, which could quickly reduce visibility on roadways.

Monday will be a very cold day for parts of the Northeast with wind chills in the 20s and teens for a large part of the region.

Still, there is a pattern change coming and milder weather will likely arrive later in the week.

No dangerous weather is expected to reach the U.S. during the week of Election Day.

On Election Day itself, Americans will see sunshine nearly coast to coast, with mild temperatures from the Southwest to the upper Midwest.

Still, a tropical system may make a turn northward near Central America and could quickly become a weather headline for the U.S. in the days after the election.

With tensions already running high over the fatal shooting of a 21-year-old Black man by sheriff’s deputies, protests this weekend in Vancouver, Washington, devolved into reported vandalism of businesses and fights between demonstrators demanding justice and members of right-wing groups that converged in the city.

Kevin Peterson Jr. was shot to death on Thursday evening by Clark County sheriff’s deputies in Hazel Dell, an unincorporated area of Vancouver, prompting consecutive nights of protests that led to at least six arrests early Saturday after authorities said some demonstrators ignored orders to disperse and began hurling rocks at law enforcement officers outside the Clark County Jail in Vancouver.

On Saturday night, members of a right-wing group gathered in Esther Park in Vancouver, prompting police to close the park. Those protesting Peterson’s shooting and counter-demonstrators stood on opposite sides of a downtown Vancouver street arguing as a large police presence attempted to prevent the confrontation from escalating into violence.

On Friday night, video taken by ABC affiliate KATU in Portland, Oregon, showed fights breaking out between protesters and counter-protesters in Vancouver following a vigil for Peterson.

Peterson was shot dead around 6 p.m. Thursday by three Clark County sheriff’s deputies in the parking lot of a bank in Hazel Dell, just north of downtown Vancouver, law enforcement officials said.

An independent investigation of the deadly encounter is being led by the Camas Police Department and the Southwest Washington Independent Investigative Response Team, which is comprised of certified peace officers and non-law enforcement community representatives.

During a brief news conference on Friday, Clark County Sheriff Chuck Atkins said the shooting unfolded as detectives of the Clark/Vancouver Drug Task Force were investigating suspected drug dealing in the parking lot of a motel in Hazel Dell. He said detectives spotted a man sitting alone in a car and as they approached the vehicle, the occupant got out and ran.

“A foot pursuit ensued where deputies from the Clark County Sheriff’s Office were chasing a man with a firearm,” Atkins said. “The information I have is that upon entering the parking lot of a bank, the man reportedly fired his weapon at the deputies. The deputies returned fire and the subject was tragically killed. It is my understanding that the man’s firearm was observed at the scene.”

The man who was killed was later identified by his family as Peterson.

“It’s important to relate that the loss of a young man’s life likely means there is a grieving father, mother and other family. It is right and correct that the community would grieve along with this family,” Atkins said.

He said that the three deputies who opened fire on Peterson have been placed on administrative leave while the results of the investigation are pending, in keeping with standard protocol for officer-involved shootings. The names of the deputies have not been released.

Battle Ground, Washington, Police Chief Mike Fort, the spokesman for the Southwest Washington Independent Investigative Response Team, released a statement saying that during the initial foot chase, Peterson allegedly pointed a gun at the narcotics detectives, causing them to back off as he kept running.

Fort said a short time later, the three Clark County deputies spotted the man and all three fired their handguns. Fort did not say in the statement that Peterson fired at the deputies.

He said a .40-caliber Glock handgun was found near the body of Peterson, who was pronounced dead at the scene.

Peterson’s father, Kevin Peterson, told The Oregonian that his son “wasn’t a problem child at all” and said that he was “a good kid.” He said that his son, one of six siblings, played high school basketball and football.

Peterson’s death follows months of protests nationwide over a string of police killings of Black people, including George Floyd, who died on May 25 after a Minneapolis police officer was captured on cellphone video digging his knee into Floyd’s neck as the 46-year-old cried out, “I can’t breathe.”

Derek Chauvin, the ex-Minneapolis police officer accused of killing Floyd, has been charged with second and third-degree murder and manslaughter in Floyd’s death. He was released from jail on $1 million bond, in early October.

The three other officers who were at the scene of Floyd’s death, Tou Thao, Thomas Lane and J. Alexander Kueng, have been charged with aiding and abetting second-degree murder and aiding and abetting manslaughter. They have all also been released from jail as the four former officers await their trial starting next March.

In March, Breonna Taylor was killed by police at her Louisville home. In September, a grand jury indicted one of the officers, Brett Hankison, on three counts of first-degree wanton endangerment for firing into the apartment directly behind Taylor’s, where three people were inside. Hankison pleaded not guilty. But none of the officers involved in Taylor’s death were charged in connection to her loss of life

The Hazel Dell community is less than 20 miles from Portland, Oregon, where protests over Floyd’s death have turned violent and led to clashes with right-wing counter-protesters.

On Aug. 29, Aaron “Jay” Danielson, 39, a supporter of a right-wing group was shot to death in Portland allegedly during a confrontation with 48-year-old Michael Reinoehl, who claimed in an interview with Vice News that he was providing security for Black Lives Matter protests in Portland and shot Danielson in self-defense.

On Sept. 3, Reinoehl was shot to death in Lacy, Washington, by a federal fugitive task force attempting to arrest him on a second-degree murder charge stemming from Danielson’s killing.

ABC News’ Ahmad Hemingway contributed to this report.

As a record-breaking early voting cycle winds down in Florida, and with the race for president between Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden remaining close in the state, both campaigns are hoping to squeeze as many votes out of their candidate’s supporters as possible in the final days.

Combining mail-in votes and early in-person votes, over 8.2 million ballots have already been cast in Florida as of Saturday morning, according to the Florida Division of Elections, surpassing the 6.6 million early votes in the 2016 presidential election.

Democrats hold a lead by 116,051 votes over Republicans in turnout among registered voters, a result of a monthslong campaign by the state Democratic Party to encourage voters to vote by mail ahead of Election Day. But Republicans have been closing the gap, out-voting Democrats in person by 528,000 during the early voting period.

With only two days left of early voting in many counties (and just one in some), the GOP is trying to capitalize on the momentum so it’s better poised to earn a victory on Tuesday in a state that has historically been won by thin margins.

“[Democrats] did a great job of having their voters register for absentee ballots, and then did a great job of having those voters return those ballots,” a Trump campaign adviser in Florida told ABC News. “We worked very hard to register more Republicans than had ever been registered before.”

According to data released this month by Florida election officials, Republicans narrowed their deficit in voter registration to 134,242 voters, down from 327,483 in 2016.

To turn out those voters, Republicans have relied on campaign methods that Democrats in Florida have largely avoided during the coronavirus pandemic: in-person voter contact and packed — mostly maskless — rallies across the state.

“I know people like to roll their eyes at the rallies, but they do energize the voters,” according to the campaign adviser, who said officials provide masks and encourage social distancing, though attendees rarely adhere to the guidance. “People like to say they energize the base — they don’t. They energize voters, and sometimes the voters are the base, but not always.”

Democrats, for their part, say it’s important to supplement their vote-by-mail advantage with strong in-person turnout between now and Election Day.

“Obviously we are pushing our voters out for early vote, but we’ll make sure that once we have a sense come Sunday night what’s missing, we’ll be making sure we keep our foot on the gas Monday as well,” said Karen Andre, a senior adviser for the Biden campaign in Florida. “We’re going to make sure we’re banking as many of our votes as possible, but have a readymade program to push all the way through the end of the day on Election Day.”

The Biden campaign and Democratic organizers have launched a myriad of get-out-the-vote events throughout the state, from golf cart parades in The Villages, the largest senior retirement community in the nation, to “parrandas to the polls,” a musical and festive tradition in the Puerto Rican community.

Biden’s Florida campaign has also enlisted an army of surrogates — like rapper Common and Latin American actress America Ferrera — and Republican backers, like former Republican state Sen. Paula Dockery, to criss-cross the state and make sure voters have a plan to get to the polls early.

This week, former President Barack Obama stumped for his former vice president along the Interstate 4 corridor, one of the most hotly contested regions of swing voters in Florida, where Puerto Ricans are the largest Latino community, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of U.S. Census Bureau Data.

“We got one week, Orlando, one week — si se puede — one week until the most important election of our lifetimes,” said Obama. “And you don’t have to wait until next Tuesday to cast your ballot.”

A whopping 1.7 million ballots have been cast by independents or unaffiliated voters, according to Florida’s Division of Elections. Although it’s impossible to know who they voted for until results are released, both parties see an opportunity to court the unaffiliated voters, whose political preferences may not be so cut and dry.

Florida Democratic strategist Steven Schale has been analyzing early vote data and thinks that while registered Republicans might continue to close the turnout gap in the following days, Democrats have an opportunity to win over unaffiliated voters, referred to sometimes as NPAs.

David Odenwald, 61, an unaffiliated voter in Atlantic Beach, a suburb of Jacksonville in Duval County, voted early for Biden after casting a ballot for Trump in 2016.

“I was ready for a change [in 2016],” Odenwald, who drives for Uber, told ABC News. “I had nothing to go on with Trump; I just was no way going to vote for Hillary Clinton. The outright lies, deception. The whole family is out for themselves.”

But Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic became too much for Odenwald, who used to work in health care. “This pandemic is real, the numbers are going up, and he’s trying to play like it’s almost over. It’s far from over,” he said.

As for Trump’s rallies? “They’re like a super-spreader, and he doesn’t care,” said Odenwald. “To me, he’s going to be responsible for a lot of deaths.”

Schale said Biden may have an edge with the unaffiliated voters due to their demographics.

“More and more younger voters of color are registering as NPAs, so the non-party affiliate voters are probably a little bit more Democratic in their party orientation than they were 10 years ago,” said Schale.

Twenty-one percent of unaffiliated voters are Hispanic and 7% are Black, according to Schale. Over one-fourth of them are new or sporadic voters. Many of them, he says, are Puerto Ricans.

At a drive-in rally in North Miami, Obama took a shot at the president’s handling of Hurricane Maria, which devastated Puerto Rico in 2017.

“When a hurricane devastates Puerto Rico, a president is supposed to help it rebuild, not toss paper towels, withhold billions of dollars in aid until just before an election. We’ve got a president who actually suggested selling Puerto Rico,” he said.

Yet turnout so far in Miami-Dade County, where Obama spoke, is causing anxiety for Democrats, who worry that Biden is not in position to carry the heavily Democratic county by a large enough margin.

“The biggest cause for concern for Democrats is the gap in Hispanic voting in Miami-Dade,” Matthew Isbell, a Democratic data analyst, told ABC News.

According to Isbell, turnout by Hispanic Democrats in the county lags behind 2016’s numbers.

“That’s pretty significant,” said Isbell. “I think it’s finally starting to spark some alarm bells among some of the different Democratic organizations down there.”

Florida is a “war for turnout,” according to Josh Mendelsohn, CEO of Hawkfish, a Democratic data and technology firm. He said it’s all going to come down to what candidate can rally support among voters who have yet to vote.

“Campaigns ought to reorient themselves to take advantage of the fact that they can now narrow those last persuasive arguments they’re trying to make — the proverbial closing arguments,” he said.

The pandemic versus the economy defines the presidential contest in two key battlegrounds, with Florida holding firm to its toss-up status while Joe Biden leads slightly in Pennsylvania in the season’s final ABC News/Washington Post polls.

There’s little change in either state. In Florida, Donald Trump has 50% support among likely voters to Biden’s 48%; it was 51%-47% in an ABC/Post poll Sept. 20. Trump won the state by 112,911 votes out of more than 9.4 million cast in 2016.

In Pennsylvania, the race stands at 51%-44%, Biden-Trump, a 7-point advantage for the Democrat; that compares with a 9-point margin late last month. Here, Trump’s 2016 win was even narrower: 44,292 votes out of nearly 6.2 million cast.

See PDF for full results, charts and tables.

Biden owes his standing in Pennsylvania to most of the same groups his campaign relies on across the country. He holds a 14-point advantage among women, compared with an even contest among men; an 18-point lead among independents, a frequent swing voter group that Trump won by 7 percentage points in the state in 2016; and a 28-point lead among moderates.

Biden is competitive among white voters in Pennsylvania — they divide 50%-46%, Trump-Biden — while he wins 76% support from members of racial and ethnic groups in the state. In Florida, by contrast, Trump leads among whites by 20 points. Additionally, boosted by Cuban Americans, he runs competitively among Hispanic voters.

Both states have been spared the worst of the current surge in coronavirus cases, yet these polls, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, show that the pandemic remains a powerful factor. In Pennsylvania, likely voters by 56%-38% say it’s more important to try to control the spread of the virus than to restart the economy; this narrows to 49%-45% in Florida. In both states, Trump wins more than 8 in 10 of those who prioritize the economy, while Biden wins more than 8 in 10 of those focused on stopping the spread.

Approvals and worry

Trump just touches majority approval in Florida for his work in office overall, marking his competitiveness in the state; 51% of likely voters approve of his work in office, 48% disapprove. In Pennsylvania, he’s underwater, 44%-54%. Typically for an incumbent election, these views closely reflect vote preferences.

Trump is boosted in Florida by notably positive ratings for handling the economy, 58%-40%. This works less well for him in Pennsylvania, 52%-46%. These fade to a split decision in Florida on his handling of the pandemic (48% approve, 50% disapprove) and a negative result, 41%-56%, in Pennsylvania.

Trump has urged economic reopening, and indeed Florida lifted all statewide COVID-19 restrictions a month ago. In Pennsylvania, by contrast, masks are mandatory in public places and businesses must operate at reduced capacity indoors.

The states report similar recent infection rates: 19 new daily cases per 100,000 residents in Florida and 17 in Pennsylvania. (These compare, for example, to 78 per 100,000 in Wisconsin.) That said, Pennsylvania has a higher seven-day average test-positivity rate, 13.3% versus 5.2% in Florida. And hospitalizations are up 54% in the past two weeks in Pennsylvania, compared with 7% in Florida.

Sixty-two percent of likely voters in Pennsylvania are worried that they or an immediate family member may catch the virus, and 8% say it’s already happened. Fewer in Florida, 55%, are worried (and 10% say it’s happened). In both states, among likely voters who are worried about catching the virus, 70% support Biden.

Trust and qualities

Preferences to handle the economy and the pandemic roughly follow Trump’s approval ratings on them. In Florida, likely voters trust Trump over Biden on the economy, 55%-42%, and divide evenly in trust to handle the pandemic. In Pennsylvania, it’s 48%-45%, Trump-Biden, on the economy, and switches to 51%-40%, Biden-Trump, in trust on the coronavirus.

On another issue in Pennsylvania, likely voters split evenly, 45%-45%, in trust to handle fracking in the state. In their final debate, Trump accused Biden of favoring a ban on fracking. Biden has said he would ban new oil and gas drilling on federal land, but allow continued drilling under existing federal permits and on non-federal land.

Differences between Pennsylvania and Florida also emerge in views of the candidates’ personal qualities. Likely voters in Florida divide evenly between Trump and Biden on who’s more honest and trustworthy (46%-45%) and who better understands the problems of people like them (47%-47%). Trump moves to an advantage as the stronger leader, 53%-44%.

In Pennsylvania, instead, Biden leads on the first two of these – 49%-39% for honesty and 51%-40% for empathy – and runs evenly with Trump on strong leadership, 47%-47%.

Voting

Among the sharpest differences between these states is how people there intend to vote. In Florida, 60% of likely voters said (in interviews last Saturday through Thursday) that they’d already voted, and 23% still intended to vote early, leaving just 17% as Election Day voters. Preferences among early voters are close, 50%-47%, Biden-Trump.

In Pennsylvania, by contrast, most, 58%, said they’d vote on Election Day, 32% said they’d already voted and the rest still intended to do so. Here self-reported early voting was far more lopsided for Biden, 75%-22%.

Regionally speaking

There are large differences across regions of both states. On its face, Biden’s advantage in Pennsylvania rests on Philadelphia, with nearly a 4-1 lead, and its suburbs, 59%-36%. That said, Trump’s position in central Pennsylvania, 52%-42%, is a comedown from his 28-point win there in 2016. The race is essentially tied in the northeast (including Biden’s childhood hometown of Scranton), and 54%-45%, Trump-Biden — not a significant difference given the sample size — in the western counties, including Pittsburgh.

In Florida, Miami, the Gold Coast and the Keys — with about 3 in 10 of the state’s likely voters — is Biden’s best region by far, 60%-38%. Trump comes back with an equally large lead in northern Florida and the Panhandle, 61%-38%, and a broad 68%-30% in the central and Gulf Coast counties. The race is essentially tied in the Tampa area and a close 52%-45%, Biden-Trump, in Orlando and the central Atlantic coast.

Groups

While both candidates draw from their accustomed bases, there are some notable differences. Biden, as noted, leads among independents in Pennsylvania by 54%-36%; in Florida they split evenly, 48%-47%, Biden-Trump. (Similarly, independents in Florida are 12 points more apt than those in Pennsylvania to approve of Trump’s work in office.)

Also as mentioned, Trump wins whites in Florida by 59%-39%, while in Pennsylvania they divide, 50%-46%, Trump-Biden. This includes a big difference among white Catholics; they divide evenly in Pennsylvania, while supporting Trump by 62%-37% in Florida. Further, in Florida, Trump is supported by 71% of non-college white men, about the same as four years ago. In Pennsylvania, instead, his support in this core group falls to 56%, down 15 points from 2016.

Across the political spectrum, college-educated white women in Florida back Biden by 59%-41%, an 18-point margin; Trump won them by 23 points in 2016. Biden has a 40-point lead in this group in Pennsylvania, 67%-27%. Hillary Clinton won them by 14 points.

Hispanics divide closely in Florida: 51% for Biden, 47% for Trump. While the sample is small, this is influenced by substantial support for Trump among Cuban Americans. Biden is ahead among non-Cuban Hispanics and has broad support from Black likely voters.

Among other groups, Biden wins 70% of urban likely voters in Pennsylvania versus 56% in Florida. And seniors divide 54%-45%, Trump-Biden in Florida — not a significant difference given the sample size — while going the other way, 57%-42%, Biden-Trump, in Pennsylvania. Compared with those in Pennsylvania, Florida seniors are 17 points more apt to prioritize restarting the economy over controlling the coronavirus, 13 points more likely to approve of Trump’s handling of the economy and 9 points less worried about catching the virus.

Methodology

This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone interviews Oct. 24 to 29, 2020, among random samples of 915 Florida registered voters, including 824 likely voters; and 908 Pennsylvania registered voters, including 810 likely voters. Results have margins of sampling error of 3.5 percentage points among registered voters and 4.0 among likely voters in both states, including design effects. The vote preference question included the Libertarian candidate in Pennsylvania and the Green and Libertarian candidates in Florida. Neither was included in the September surveys in these states.

Partisan divisions – Democrats-Republicans-independents – are 31%-35%-29% among registered voters and 31%-36%-28% among likely voters in Florida and 33%-36%-26% among registered voters and 36%-36%-24% among likely voters in Pennsylvania.

The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates, with sampling and data collection by Abt Associates of Rockville, Maryland. See details on the survey’s methodology here.

The pandemic election of 2020 is boom time for political text messaging.

Campaigns and independent advocacy groups are inundating voters’ cellphones with a record number of texts that analysts say could number in the billions.

“We’ve definitely seen this year that more people, more campaigns are using it and that is having an impact. I think people are getting a little bit frustrated,” said Jessica Alter, co-founder and CEO of Tech for Campaigns, a left-leaning nonprofit.

The Trump campaign has said it will send more than a billion texts this cycle. MoveOn, a progressive group pushing voter turnout, told ABC News it’s already sent 350 million. The Biden campaign and other voter mobilization efforts have contributed hundreds of millions more.

The messages are coming fast and furious from both sides in the final hours of the campaign, eclipsing door-knocks as the go-to method of voter outreach because of COVID-19.

“We had a texting party at my house — six women around the table. We had some wine, some cheese and crackers, and I gave them a little script to get them to encourage their friends and families to get out and vote,” Virginia voter Patti Hidalgo Menders told ABC News.

The get-out-the-vote push is being propelled by special political texting apps that tap publicly available voter registration records to load phone numbers automatically and allow armies of volunteers to send scripted messages with the tap of a thumb.

“You have maybe 100 text messages assigned to you, and you just click ‘Send’ and it sends off the message, and you send it to the next person, and you click ‘Send’ until you’ve sent it to everyone,” said Emily Isaac, voter mobilization director for MoveOn, who demonstrated the tool for GMA3 and ABC News Live.

“A lot of people might think it’s a robot; it’s totally not. It’s a human, it’s a volunteer,” Isaac said. “You could be sitting, you know, watching Netflix just hanging out.”

Most robocalls and robotexts are illegal without an individual’s prior consent. But the Federal Communications Commission, which regulates unsolicited commercial calls, says campaign outreach initiated by a real person is exempt from the Do Not Call List.

“Texting has been around for a long time and there have been major text messaging get-out-the-vote campaigns for years,” said Melissa Michelson, a political science professor at Menlo College and expert on the effectiveness of political text messaging. “But this year of course there is a pandemic and so a lot of the traditional tools that a campaign would use, especially door knocking, are gone.”

Michelson said her scientific research has found that text messages have a direct positive impact on getting people to vote. “Text messaging, even if you don’t answer it, you still look at it. You still read it, right?” she said. “Per vote, it’s very powerful. But, you know, if you want big effects, you still have to do those other tactics.”

Most traditional campaign tactics involve real human contact, like door-to-door canvassing — something Democrats have de-emphasized during this campaign because of public health concerns, while Republicans have been out in force.

“This weekend we’ll have over 100,000 doors knocked, well over 500,000 calls made,” said Sean Rastatter, first vice chair of the Fairfax County Republican Committee in Virginia. “People are appreciative that, you know at this time of isolation, that we actually want to hear their voice at the door.”

Rastatter said text messaging is still dominating on both sides. “It’s cheap and easy,” he said.

Isaac said progressives activists are using texts to encourage “relational messaging.”

“We’re asking them not only will you vote, but will you help your friends and your family vote? Are there three people who you can support to vote?” she said.

The onslaught of texts is expected to continue as both sides try to drive turnout. Experts say if you’ve already voted or are otherwise eager to get off the lists, simply text S-T-O-P in reply or use the “block caller” feature on your mobile device.

Or, you could just wait for the relative electronic silence that campaign operatives and political analysts agree is certain to come the day after Election Day.